With our speculative BTC short from all new long signals, the prospects have worsened. Although, against the backdrop of looming VERY convincing market reversal signals in a bullish period and the opening prospects—it's not the biggest problem.

In this hour, the price has returned to a stable uptrend on the 1.5-hour timeframe. With target density up to $83,993.

And on this timeframe, the downtrend was the last one on the hourly timeframes. So, as we wrote, we’re still “on standby,” and we closed the part of the short that we had built up during the night from Saturday to Sunday. We closed it, and at a price even slightly below the entry point. No desire to argue with this trend. Especially since all the growth from September 18 can be interpreted as a “Bullish pennant,” which has already started and has a full target around $87,000 (after closing part of the short, our liquidation level is $88,772). At minimum, we should expect at least a partial fulfillment of it, aiming to collect liquidity at the May 6 high of $82,850.

BUT it’s not so clear-cut with further growth. Not only because besides the local “Bullish pennant” there’s also a potential, more substantial “Double top” for August–September. And also because signals of extremes continue to accumulate.

As a matter of fact, after the 12-hour candle on the chart #BTC a mark of a potential high has become established. And now, during the night, a second one appeared.

Also, there are already two marks of a potential high on the 18-hour timeframe. But even if they weren’t there—there are very many marks on this timeframe for altcoins: 55 regular + 6 Strong signals from the TOP-200.

In principle, this means that growth, without breaking the signal, can continue throughout Monday. Maximum—until the end of the day. Or possibly only until midday. But then, again, a correction is suggested (for the umpteenth time over the past few weeks), with all these levels being worked out. This would fit the tradition of Monday’s fake moves, when on the first day of the week the active leg goes in the wrong direction compared with the rest of the week.

So it will be interesting to see how the whole picture plays out. And whether the bulls will write a new higher high.

We don’t change our plans. The asset switching to an uptrend on the weekly timeframe is, of course, an ultra-bullish signal for the medium and long term, but it doesn’t cancel local corrections along the way. And we need that local correction. We hold the short. It’s not about any global bearish expectations.

We’ll consider a new attempt to add to the short no earlier than a sustained downtrend on the 1-hour timeframe. After that, we could make one more, final add if the asset transitions into a downtrend on the 3-hour timeframe, which is the trigger timeframe for us. To move the stop to breakeven somewhere in the range of $76,000–$78,000. The main thing is to make sure it makes sense. As long as there is no downtrend on the 3-hour timeframe, we consider that there isn’t one.