$CRCL 🎯 CRCL this time, I’m more inclined to sell the pullback.
🧭 The news about the Arc mainnet going live carries weight, but it’s already from September 16. Today, CRCL fell from around 92, rebounded to 90.58, then got pushed back down; afterward, the hourly high kept making lower highs.
In the short term I’m slightly bearish. But 89.70 is right up against the intraday low—if I add a short here, any small bounce will feel uncomfortable.
📍 What I really want to do is the setup above:
Left-side short zone: 90.30—90.50
Hard stop-loss: 90.80
First partial take-profit: 89.75; second target: 89.35
Resistance to watch: 90.45—90.58, from the pullback high in the morning; above that is 91.75—91.79, which was the range that got broken earlier in the day.
Support: first the day’s low at 89.57, then the September 13 daily low at 89.31.
✅ After price reaches the range, wait for the 15-minute chart to touch 90.45, then reclaim 90.30—90.40, and make sure the current candle’s active sell volume exceeds buy volume. If it drops directly away from below, then this trade won’t be for me.
🧯 Before entering: if the hourly close breaks above 90.58, first cancel the assumption that the rebound is being resisted. 90.80 is a buffer stop beyond the resistance; it will be triggered at the contract execution price.
Don’t miss this cost either: the current funding rate is about −0.0931% per 8 hours. If it’s maintained until the 16:00 settlement, shorts will have to pay. Stocks don’t trade over the weekend, so this should only be treated as a short-term contract trade—not something I drag into a bet for opening on Monday.
🧭 The news about the Arc mainnet going live carries weight, but it’s already from September 16. Today, CRCL fell from around 92, rebounded to 90.58, then got pushed back down; afterward, the hourly high kept making lower highs.
In the short term I’m slightly bearish. But 89.70 is right up against the intraday low—if I add a short here, any small bounce will feel uncomfortable.
📍 What I really want to do is the setup above:
Left-side short zone: 90.30—90.50
Hard stop-loss: 90.80
First partial take-profit: 89.75; second target: 89.35
Resistance to watch: 90.45—90.58, from the pullback high in the morning; above that is 91.75—91.79, which was the range that got broken earlier in the day.
Support: first the day’s low at 89.57, then the September 13 daily low at 89.31.
✅ After price reaches the range, wait for the 15-minute chart to touch 90.45, then reclaim 90.30—90.40, and make sure the current candle’s active sell volume exceeds buy volume. If it drops directly away from below, then this trade won’t be for me.
🧯 Before entering: if the hourly close breaks above 90.58, first cancel the assumption that the rebound is being resisted. 90.80 is a buffer stop beyond the resistance; it will be triggered at the contract execution price.
Don’t miss this cost either: the current funding rate is about −0.0931% per 8 hours. If it’s maintained until the 16:00 settlement, shorts will have to pay. Stocks don’t trade over the weekend, so this should only be treated as a short-term contract trade—not something I drag into a bet for opening on Monday.