It wasn’t that “good news suddenly arrived” that caused the big rally last night; it was that the shorts couldn’t hold on any longer.
Last night I judged that as long as BTC holds $77,000, it would break into $80,000 and continue to test the $82,000–$83,000 range.
So far the high has already reached around $81,600. The direction has essentially played out—only the pace is faster than I expected.
The reasons aren’t complicated.
Rate hikes, the hawkish dot plot, and the regulatory bill getting blocked have all already been priced in. But BTC still hasn’t broken below $75,000–$76,000. Since the bearish news can’t push it down, the shorts naturally start to get nervous.
Meanwhile, spot ETFs have shifted from continuous outflows to net inflows for two days totaling about $590 million. U.S. regulatory expectations are also warming up. Spot capital first pushes the price toward $80,000; then the shorts stop-loss, which further amplifies the upside.
On the technical side, BTC has already reclaimed the 4-hour MA30, MA120, and MA200. MACD continues to expand volume, and the bulls have regained initiative. However, both RSI and KDJ have entered the overbought zone. The $81,600–$82,300 area is also the next resistance zone, and the risk-reward for chasing higher isn’t great.
Before month-end, focus on three key levels:
- Holding $80,000: If price stays strong, look for $84,000–$85,000.
- Breaking below $79,000: That would suggest the breakout needs to be re-confirmed, and price may pull back toward $78,000.
- Falling back below $77,500 again: Only then would this rally be considered clearly failed.
I think during the rest of September the market is likely to consolidate with a bullish bias, but above $82,000 is the real test. If bearish news doesn’t bring the price down, it indicates the positioning is strengthening. Only if volume expands and price holds above $82,300 can we say the trend reversal is confirmed; if it can’t hold, then this is still just a strong rebound.
Last night I judged that as long as BTC holds $77,000, it would break into $80,000 and continue to test the $82,000–$83,000 range.
So far the high has already reached around $81,600. The direction has essentially played out—only the pace is faster than I expected.
The reasons aren’t complicated.
Rate hikes, the hawkish dot plot, and the regulatory bill getting blocked have all already been priced in. But BTC still hasn’t broken below $75,000–$76,000. Since the bearish news can’t push it down, the shorts naturally start to get nervous.
Meanwhile, spot ETFs have shifted from continuous outflows to net inflows for two days totaling about $590 million. U.S. regulatory expectations are also warming up. Spot capital first pushes the price toward $80,000; then the shorts stop-loss, which further amplifies the upside.
On the technical side, BTC has already reclaimed the 4-hour MA30, MA120, and MA200. MACD continues to expand volume, and the bulls have regained initiative. However, both RSI and KDJ have entered the overbought zone. The $81,600–$82,300 area is also the next resistance zone, and the risk-reward for chasing higher isn’t great.
Before month-end, focus on three key levels:
- Holding $80,000: If price stays strong, look for $84,000–$85,000.
- Breaking below $79,000: That would suggest the breakout needs to be re-confirmed, and price may pull back toward $78,000.
- Falling back below $77,500 again: Only then would this rally be considered clearly failed.
I think during the rest of September the market is likely to consolidate with a bullish bias, but above $82,000 is the real test. If bearish news doesn’t bring the price down, it indicates the positioning is strengthening. Only if volume expands and price holds above $82,300 can we say the trend reversal is confirmed; if it can’t hold, then this is still just a strong rebound.
