$BMNR In the past 24 hours, it surged 5.83%. Current price: 25.95. The funding rate has dropped to zero, and the open interest is around 890,000 lots.
This rally is purely emotion-driven. Price moves upward, but the funding rate is 0—longs aren’t paying shorts, and open interest hasn’t kept up. This is a classic volume-less rally driven by sentiment. In the futures market, this kind of structure can’t last for long. Whoever chases longs is essentially just carrying the sedan.
The strongest counter-evidence is that if this sentiment can actually continue, it could break through directly. But I bet it won’t continue—any rally without real buy-side support is just an air castle. If the next leg sees a pullback, the retail traders who chased at high levels will be the first to cut losses; liquidity will quickly shift toward the short side, and the price is likely to fall faster than it rose.
My view: open a short directly. 5x leverage. Set stop-loss at 26.5 and take-profit at 24.5. Position size: 20%. If the price holds above 26.5, then my logic is wrong—I’ll cancel immediately.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #BMNR
Where do you think this set of reasoning is most likely to be wrong?
This rally is purely emotion-driven. Price moves upward, but the funding rate is 0—longs aren’t paying shorts, and open interest hasn’t kept up. This is a classic volume-less rally driven by sentiment. In the futures market, this kind of structure can’t last for long. Whoever chases longs is essentially just carrying the sedan.
The strongest counter-evidence is that if this sentiment can actually continue, it could break through directly. But I bet it won’t continue—any rally without real buy-side support is just an air castle. If the next leg sees a pullback, the retail traders who chased at high levels will be the first to cut losses; liquidity will quickly shift toward the short side, and the price is likely to fall faster than it rose.
My view: open a short directly. 5x leverage. Set stop-loss at 26.5 and take-profit at 24.5. Position size: 20%. If the price holds above 26.5, then my logic is wrong—I’ll cancel immediately.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #BMNR
Where do you think this set of reasoning is most likely to be wrong?