$BTC This afternoon, I said on the live stream: the 78600 pressure level. When the price pulls back to 78400, you can’t short. It’s best to wait until it pulls back and consolidates before using short-term indicators to look for a bullish long setup. Move the stop loss to the lower end of that consolidation—around 77900. Just lower the stop loss by 100 here.
Also, 80500 has been reached. Personally, I believe the market will continue rising. In fact, the ultimate high of the行情 is around 84500-85000.
Before the rate hike, I mentioned that the overall market indicators are bullish. And in every big surge, there is a pullback consolidation phase that lags behind, allowing indicators to repair. As for the weekly indicators at that time, they could indeed be bearish anytime—but there’s also a chance it keeps rising, reaching the extreme high at 84500-85000.
For the market, things like NFP, US Treasuries, the situation in the Middle East, CPI, etc., have already priced in the probability of a rate hike—it's basically just waiting for the answer to be released. Everyone thinks a rate hike means a big drop, but in the end, institutions sold off early. When the rate hike actually happens, the market is already positioned for downside. Then institutions pump the price and harvest. Actually, on the 15th, at the high around 79700, using short-term indicators to look bearish, it kept getting hammered. That’s when I guessed that a rate-hike-and-drop—an internal release—was very likely happening early.
So it’s basically the play of the主力: they traded the two stages—one is repairing the weekly indicators, the other is the sell-off around the rate hike. They swapped the timing back and forth. It’s really just to harvest, but you still can’t escape the bullish overall-market indicators that were drawn into the circle.
So tonight, the price will likely range-trade between 80500-80900. I don’t recommend shorting. Just stay on the sidelines, wait for it to reach the 84500-85000 area, then plan the short position. Of course, starting from 83000 you can also scale in your short orders in batches. If you’re chasing an ultra-short-term trade, then I didn’t say any of this.
The above is my personal analysis and suggestions—please refer to it cautiously.
Also, 80500 has been reached. Personally, I believe the market will continue rising. In fact, the ultimate high of the行情 is around 84500-85000.
Before the rate hike, I mentioned that the overall market indicators are bullish. And in every big surge, there is a pullback consolidation phase that lags behind, allowing indicators to repair. As for the weekly indicators at that time, they could indeed be bearish anytime—but there’s also a chance it keeps rising, reaching the extreme high at 84500-85000.
For the market, things like NFP, US Treasuries, the situation in the Middle East, CPI, etc., have already priced in the probability of a rate hike—it's basically just waiting for the answer to be released. Everyone thinks a rate hike means a big drop, but in the end, institutions sold off early. When the rate hike actually happens, the market is already positioned for downside. Then institutions pump the price and harvest. Actually, on the 15th, at the high around 79700, using short-term indicators to look bearish, it kept getting hammered. That’s when I guessed that a rate-hike-and-drop—an internal release—was very likely happening early.
So it’s basically the play of the主力: they traded the two stages—one is repairing the weekly indicators, the other is the sell-off around the rate hike. They swapped the timing back and forth. It’s really just to harvest, but you still can’t escape the bullish overall-market indicators that were drawn into the circle.
So tonight, the price will likely range-trade between 80500-80900. I don’t recommend shorting. Just stay on the sidelines, wait for it to reach the 84500-85000 area, then plan the short position. Of course, starting from 83000 you can also scale in your short orders in batches. If you’re chasing an ultra-short-term trade, then I didn’t say any of this.
The above is my personal analysis and suggestions—please refer to it cautiously.
