The European Central Bank on the 9th raised, the US Federal Reserve on the 17th raised, and Japan today also followed with a hike to 1.25%, the highest since 1995. The three major central banks tightened within the same week—textbook-wise, the chain of “rate hikes → money gets more expensive → risk assets first die” got cut off rather cleanly today: the yen weakened to 157, Nikkei futures are still up 0.69%, and BTC touched 78,000.
I won’t pretend—this transmission chain didn’t materialize today, and I called it wrong. So then we’ll see where the money actually went.
Today there are two kinds of rises, with totally different appearances. The one up 80%: open interest jumped from 4.91 million U to 9.82 million U within an hour, funding rate 0.084%, with longs paying shorts once every eight hours—that’s hard leverage being piled in. And the one up 29.8% ($CROSS ): open interest fell from 3.17 million U to 3.05 million U; price rose about 30% while leverage actually decreased by 4%. With funding rate 0.005% sitting right on the benchmark line, the long/short accounts ratio of 1.60 didn’t move all day.
So I tested a short at 0.1800. The position size is only one-third of my usual. Stop-loss at 0.1900. One reason I dared to place the trade: there’s no rise backed by new leverage entering—the move upward has no fuel. One reason I didn’t go heavy: without leverage, if it drops, there won’t be a liquidation cascade stampede.
Below 0.1725 (the low of the hourly candle at 16:00), above 0.1900. Whichever breaks first, I’ll post the result tomorrow—I’ll accept that I was wrong.
[A/B] #市场快讯 #实时数据 #资金动向
I won’t pretend—this transmission chain didn’t materialize today, and I called it wrong. So then we’ll see where the money actually went.
Today there are two kinds of rises, with totally different appearances. The one up 80%: open interest jumped from 4.91 million U to 9.82 million U within an hour, funding rate 0.084%, with longs paying shorts once every eight hours—that’s hard leverage being piled in. And the one up 29.8% ($CROSS ): open interest fell from 3.17 million U to 3.05 million U; price rose about 30% while leverage actually decreased by 4%. With funding rate 0.005% sitting right on the benchmark line, the long/short accounts ratio of 1.60 didn’t move all day.
So I tested a short at 0.1800. The position size is only one-third of my usual. Stop-loss at 0.1900. One reason I dared to place the trade: there’s no rise backed by new leverage entering—the move upward has no fuel. One reason I didn’t go heavy: without leverage, if it drops, there won’t be a liquidation cascade stampede.
Below 0.1725 (the low of the hourly candle at 16:00), above 0.1900. Whichever breaks first, I’ll post the result tomorrow—I’ll accept that I was wrong.
[A/B] #市场快讯 #实时数据 #资金动向