橙子Joyce

The “crypto winter,” which has lasted nearly a year, is over—and it’s expected to become the strongest and longest-lasting bull cycle in cryptocurrency history.

Over the past 5 days, Bitcoin has risen by more than 7%, and over the past 3 months, it has gained nearly 35%. From a technical perspective, as long as the support level around $75,000 is held, bulls may push further into the $90,000 area.

This rebound comes amid the 《Digital Asset Market Clarity Act》 failing to pass the Senate procedural vote, breaking the simplistic logic that “legislative failure is a bearish signal,” as the market begins to reassess the real impact of regulatory uncertainty.

Capital returns: the core logic behind crypto spring:

The key basis for the end of “crypto winter” is not merely a price rebound, but a divergence between price and fundamentals.

During the recent period when crypto asset prices were falling, the industry’s fundamentals were not deteriorating in parallel: on-chain activity increased, and large financial institutions such as BlackRock further entered the digital asset market, forming a pattern of “cyclical declines in price alongside structural improvements in fundamentals.”

It’s expected that crypto asset prices may further catch up with the changes in fundamentals later this year.

$90,000 as the next observation point

On a longer time horizon, Bitcoin has not fully exited the prior correction.

Bitcoin set a historical high of about $126,000 in October last year, then was briefly cut in half, and fell to roughly $57.6k in early July this year. Even with the recent sharp rebound, the current price is still about one-third below the historical high.

This suggests that the current rebound is more like a repair from a deep correction, rather than confirmation that a new cycle of historical highs has begun.

Whether $90,000 can be broken through effectively will be a key observation point to test the “quality” of crypto spring:

If price faces resistance and pulls back near $90,000, the market may need to reassess the sustainability of capital rotation;

If there is a breakout with heavy volume, it will further reinforce Hougan’s judgment that this is “the strongest and longest-lasting bull cycle in history.”

Looking ahead, you can keep an eye on the Fed’s rate path and the direction of yields on long-term U.S. Treasuries—these remain the core macro variables that influence crypto asset valuation.
——————We continue to invest regularly in BNB, BTC, ETH, SOL
$BTC

$BNB
$SOL

Musk confirmed this on X today: about 7 days from now (target date around September 28), Starship’s 14th test flight will first enter orbit and deploy the first batch of Starlink V3 satellites intended for actual operations.

@elonmusk
This is the first mission for Starship to truly reach orbit, and it’s also the first time the V3 satellites will be left in orbit to join the constellation—rather than performing only a suborbital deployment and then burning them up as was done with July’s Flight 13. This mission is planned to carry about 26 V3 satellites. engadget.com
Compared with the current V2 Mini, V3 is a major upgrade: per-satellite downlink of about 1 Tbps (around 10×), and uplink of about 160 Gbps. One Starship launch can add a significant amount of capacity to the whole constellation. Musk has also said that the full V3 constellation’s total bandwidth could ultimately be 100× or more than the current network of about 11,000 satellites. These satellites can only be delivered by Starship—Falcon 9 can’t carry a meaningful number of them.

If successful, this will be an important step for Starship as it transitions from test flights to delivering commercial payloads.
—————————————————————————We continue to invest in US stock markets: $SPCX.US

The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75%-4.00% in the October meeting is 43.5%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike is 56.5%.

The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75%-4.00% by December is 10.2%%, the probability of cumulative 25-basis-point rate hikes is 46.6%, and the probability of cumulative 50-basis-point rate hikes is 33.3%.

OpenAI’s cash burn, Google’s runaway AI, SpaceX gets FCC approval, and Anthropic’s Claude helps researchers crack OpenAI

【1】From the cash burn scale projected by OpenAI; the company behind ChatGPT, OpenAI, expects to face a cash burn of $280 billion between 2026 and 2030, mainly driven by compute and infrastructure costs. Despite enormous losses, the company remains committed to expanding capacity and increasing its market share. Currently, OpenAI is seeking a new round of financing at a valuation of $1.2 trillion.

OpenAI is rolling out the GPT-6 Astra platform to the legal industry, aiming to help law firms with case research and drafting legal opinions. The platform combines the GPT-6 Astra model with an index covering U.S. case law, statutes, regulations, and other legal materials.

【2】Google’s AI “ran out of control” during a cybersecurity test; Google’s Gemini AI model broke through the systems of three companies during a cybersecurity test. After the AI model was connected to the internet, it ran out of control, making Google the latest company to encounter this kind of issue.

【3】U.S. space exploration technologies company has received approval from the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) to provide international telecommunications services. This license will help SpaceX further increase its capacity to carry international traffic as its satellite and mobile communications coverage continues to expand.

U.S. space exploration technologies company has received approval from the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) to provide international telecommunications services. This license will help SpaceX further increase its capacity to carry international traffic as its satellite and mobile communications coverage continues to expand.

【4】Anthropic’s Claude helps researchers crack OpenAI

Independent security researchers used Anthropic’s Claude software to successfully infiltrate OpenAI. They leveraged the software to breach a ChatGPT account belonging to an OpenAI employee, thereby obtaining access to the company’s private software cache. The related vulnerability has now been patched.

—————————————————————————We continue to invest regularly in the stocks of SpaceX (SPCX), NVIDIA, Google, and Tesla. $SPCX.US
$GOOG.US
$NVDA.US

NASDAQ 100 quarterly rebalancing takes effect soon! SpaceX’s weight will double to 2.82%; confirming the previously estimated weight level—this will better align the space and satellite giant’s index weighting with its massive market valuation.

① On September 21, the NASDAQ 100 index’s quarterly rebalancing took effect, and SpaceX’s weight in the index will rise to 2.82%;

② This adjustment was calculated based on the closing price on September 18, with the goal of matching SpaceX’s status as the seventh-largest constituent stock in the index by market value—over $2 trillion;

③ Investment products globally tracking the NASDAQ 100 index will therefore need to buy SpaceX shares to adjust their positions as part of this rebalancing.

Weight adjustment

SpaceX listed this year in July, and its current weight in the index is only 1.28%, which is relatively low. Because after its listing most shares remain subject to lock-up periods, this limits its representation in the index. Even though NASDAQ later modified its rules—allowing newly listed large companies to enter the index faster and removing the requirement that at least 10% of shares must be publicly tradable—its index weight is still constrained.

This weight adjustment helps eliminate an unusual imbalance: although SpaceX ranks as the seventh-largest company in the NASDAQ 100 index by market value—at more than $2 trillion—it has not even managed to break into the top 20 constituents by weight.

The significant increase in index weight will force passive funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking this benchmark index to rebalance their portfolios and buy SpaceX shares in order to maintain accurate tracking performance.

The main funds affected by this weight adjustment include: Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ). With assets under management of $48.2 billion, this fund is one of the largest ETFs globally tracking the NASDAQ 100 index. There are more than 200 investment products worldwide that track the NASDAQ 100 index, with total managed assets exceeding $800 billion.
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We are still consistently investing in SPCX shares
$SPCX.US

Encrypted total market cap is currently preparing for a new round of expansion, with total market cap potentially reaching $10–12 trillion; over the next six to nine months, “full of surprises.”

If Bitcoin again breaks above its all-time high, market attention may gradually shift toward Ethereum. Funds could then flow along a risk curve from “ETH → mid-cap coins → small-cap coins → meme coins,” with the most frenzied market action typically appearing at this stage. Under this scenario, crypto total market cap could aim for $10 trillion to $12 trillion, while the current figure (excluding market cap of BTC) is only about $1.1 trillion.

Live data: in the past 24 hours, a total of 5,422 BTC have flowed into exchange wallets, worth $542 million.

——————————————————————————We DCA into BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL
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$ETH
$BNB

Four months of accumulation, one moment of blooming.
$TLS is officially announced as an official FLAP test token, the best possible reward for everyone who has stayed committed in the past—and also a brand-new beginning as we build upon the BNBChain ecosystem and move full steam ahead into the #MemeFi arena.
As the newly launched official test token in the ecosystem, TLS aligns with the mature market-value framework of TST and TUT. Leveraging FLAP’s currently hottest Meme-launch ecosystem advantages, TLS enjoys exceptional growth dividends. Unlike the many speculative tokens in the market, TLS stands firm with real community building. Official endorsement further solidifies the foundation of its value.
No short-term hype games—only long-term, dependable value. In the future, $TLS will surely continue the market-cap legend of BNBChain’s official test tokens, delivering a complete and satisfying answer for every builder who has stayed and contributed.