$RKLB 24 hours up 5%, price at 67.69, yet the on-chain contract funding rate is zero. This combination is kind of interesting.
Price is moving upward, but neither the long side nor the short side is paying anyone—so this doesn’t look like retail FOMO chasing it. It’s more like institutions or large capital, under specific expectations, slowly and silently lifting the price. Connecting it to the angle of the Trump trade, the logic checks out. The market may be pricing in potential positives for traditional industry, defense, and space infrastructure after he takes office. $RKLB , as a space launch company, fits neatly into this narrative. A zero funding rate means leveraged longs have no extra cost; this kind of rise is more solid, not inflated by money-funding.
The strongest counter-argument is: as soon as Trump’s polling drops by a few points, or the broader market sentiment turns, this expectation trade will quickly unwind. A second-order effect is that if this narrative keeps going, people holding shorts will feel awful. They’re not just losing money—they also aren’t receiving any funding fee compensation. They’re basically being slowly boiled in warm water.
When would this view stop working? If the $RKLB price breaks below 65—i.e., retraces nearly 4% from the current price—then the bullish logic for the short term needs to be reassessed. The Trump-trade positioning may loosen.
Action: You can try a small long position along the 5-day moving average, with a hard stop-loss placed at 65.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #RKLB
Where do you think this judgment is most likely to be wrong?
Price is moving upward, but neither the long side nor the short side is paying anyone—so this doesn’t look like retail FOMO chasing it. It’s more like institutions or large capital, under specific expectations, slowly and silently lifting the price. Connecting it to the angle of the Trump trade, the logic checks out. The market may be pricing in potential positives for traditional industry, defense, and space infrastructure after he takes office. $RKLB , as a space launch company, fits neatly into this narrative. A zero funding rate means leveraged longs have no extra cost; this kind of rise is more solid, not inflated by money-funding.
The strongest counter-argument is: as soon as Trump’s polling drops by a few points, or the broader market sentiment turns, this expectation trade will quickly unwind. A second-order effect is that if this narrative keeps going, people holding shorts will feel awful. They’re not just losing money—they also aren’t receiving any funding fee compensation. They’re basically being slowly boiled in warm water.
When would this view stop working? If the $RKLB price breaks below 65—i.e., retraces nearly 4% from the current price—then the bullish logic for the short term needs to be reassessed. The Trump-trade positioning may loosen.
Action: You can try a small long position along the 5-day moving average, with a hard stop-loss placed at 65.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #RKLB
Where do you think this judgment is most likely to be wrong?