九烨加密论

It’s been 3 months since putting $NEAR on the desktop for analysis back then, because the market trend at the time really started about 2 months earlier than the overall market index. Now looking back, the analysis from back then was completely correct—it belongs to the first wave of the rally.

The only shortcoming is that the move from 3 dollars to 1.5 dollars, a 50% drop, is a bit deep, and it also just happened to land on the 200-day moving average—an extremely good bottom-absorption entry point. Now the current price of 3.5U is performing exceptionally well.

#Aİ

As of today, I actually look optimistic about the probability of ASTER making a breakthrough—over 90%. And 0.8U is extremely likely to trigger a direct bullish breakout with a long green candle, leaving you no chance for a buy-the-dip entry; the target is 1.4U.

At this point, I’ll consider switching positions.

#ASTER $ASTER

$SUI The current price has moved up 10% from the reminder to buy; the near-term pressure level is 0.85U. This level is where the last breakout failed, but this asset’s mid-term trend has not yet exited a bullish trend—unlike UNI, ARB, and ENA, which have completed a trend reversal.

The advantage is that the positioning is still at a low level; if it pulls back, there is still room to set up a plan.

$UNI Rebalancing was relatively timely. At the upturn point, it went directly from $6 to $8.4. This round’s target of $10 can’t be missed. When it comes to trading, if you rely only on personal drive and execution, it’s incredibly difficult—95% of people can’t sustain it consistently.

That’s why there are physical separations between the desk operator and the trader: splitting the work into two modules—instruction and execution—lets you avoid as much emotional interference as possible.

Most of us are both analysts and traders, so it’s hard to achieve consistent profitability. Don’t look at the current broad rally where everything seems to be going up—sure, everyone looks like they can profit, but only a very few can actually hold on.

Besides Uni, this time around, <c-1/> has also stood out extremely: $ENA $ARB . Stay in sync with the pace—see you in the live stream at 8 PM.

Quite interesting.

$BTC ETH did not break through the pressure of the 20-day moving average in this round. Instead, the crypto DeFi yield series of tokens $UNI and the coin-stock meme $PONS made new highs and stole the spotlight. Wherever the narrative is, that’s where the gains are.

Bitcoin is the wind vane; with even a slight move, everything else can take off. So far, rotation has not yet reached the mainstream series #SOL , XRP, ADA, SUI, and even platform coins #BNB , OKB, ASTER — aside from HYPE, none have made new highs.

How will the pace most likely unfold?

Bitcoin will likely stop rising again around 80-82K, deciding whether to continue breaking out or pull back to build momentum. At that point, the coin-stock narrative will once again take the lead and drive higher, until Bitcoin breaks through 82K and touches 93K, #ETH breaks through 2550 and reaches 3400 dollars.

In short, every drop is an opportunity. Don’t worry about interest rate hikes; there have been plenty of cases where markets kept rising during hikes. The key is that hikes are not sustainable, even if there are two hikes this year.

#Bitcoin #Ethium

4 months ago, the $HYPE with 30 had obtained current profit of 200%, and the $ZEC with 300 had profit of 400%.

Next:

In 4-5 yuan, what will the $BNC 0.15 and the #ENA 6, and the #UNI 4 after 4 months be worth?

Coin and stock $BNC again led the pack yesterday among other crypto and U.S. stocks $MSTR $BMNR , as well as HOOD and COIN. They rose 13%, far outpacing the other 5%—luckily we adjusted our positions in time.

Did you manage to keep up with this momentum?

Just now, coin-and-stock meme surged hard—$牛来 $MarsCoin —and the launch platform coin $PUMP quickly shot up too. The ignition point was the easing of policies for coin-and-stock.

The Democrats blocked the Clarity ACT (the clear law), causing it to be frozen. Next, the SEC and the CFTC will go crazy rolling out all kinds of policy substitutes.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved temporary, conditional exemption rules, allowing limited trading of tokenized stocks on-chain platforms.

Coin-and-stock officially has a default set. #币股代币化+美股合约化 is sure to become the breakout narrative for this bull market—go for it, kid.

#RH链 #CRCL

Concentrated configuration or decentralized configuration?

This is a required lesson for traders in how to allocate their capital positions. The usual playbook in traditional finance is very different from the crypto world—if you simply copy that traditional-finance theory over, most people won’t be able to adapt.

The crypto community is a special group. With their resistance to and defiance of authority, and their unwillingness to be bound by tradition, you’ll find that in the market, many projects gather large crowds and amounts of capital around a particular narrative, thereby igniting market sentiment—even blowing up certain short or long positions.

Meme coins are a microcosm and symbol of this group.
What’s the “cult villain” art behind it? Focus fire on hot narrative memes.
(Not necessarily suitable for everyone.)

$MarsCoin $牛来 $PONS

#Marscoin It can be confirmed that the Martian coin has already stopped falling, and it is currently in an upward surge. Yesterday’s low of 0.085 is the bottom of this round of decline. As long as it pulls back a little, funds will immediately follow.

It’s so easy for it to retrace to 0.10U and instantly pump 10 points—you don’t even have time to get on board. Hold the spot and aim for 0.22–0.26U to exit. In a bull market, as long as you don’t stop out, you’ll come back. It has a bit of a cult-like vibe, but sometimes it works. The prerequisite is: you must not buy into a coin that goes to zero.

Is El Salvador still buying $BTC every day?

On-chain wallets are indeed still receiving coins, with holdings rising to about 7,777 BTC. They rank fifth globally among governments by BTC holdings, with an average cost of about $50,000. At the current price, the unrealized profit exceeds $200 million.

However, in its review on September 3, the IMF gave a qualitative assessment: since June 2025, the incremental increase of about 1,540 BTC came entirely from private donations—none of it moved from the national treasury—and it is not expected to be followed by any further net buying.

So the narrative of “buying one coin every day” is already dead. What remains is a sunk pool of coins that won’t be sold.

For BTC, that means fewer daily buy orders, and more coins permanently locked up. Which matters more—judge for yourselves.

#萨尔瓦多政府持仓增至7777枚btc

Why does Old Hei have so much confidence in $UNI ?

Arthur Hayes sold ETH from 16,000 coins down to a little over 3,000. The money didn’t leave—he rotated it all into DeFi.

On December 20 last year, he publicly said: rotating from ETH into high-quality DeFi tokens, they can outperform the broader market when fiat liquidity improves.

All he bought were yield-generating protocols that had fallen by 80% to 90%: #PENDLE , LDO, ENA, and ETHFI (Lookonchain on-chain monitoring, December). But with the arrival of this bear market, they have gradually also exited with losses.

The logic is three layers: when liquidity is abundant, high-beta has bigger upside; the deeper the drop, the better the odds; and these protocols have real cash flow.

As this cycle got underway, in September this year he extended the thesis to UNI—after the fee switch was activated, governance tokens turned into cash-flow assets. An OTC deal took 320,000 UNI over five days, with an average cost of 6.94U.

$ETH $UNI —personal research notes, not investment advice

Oh my god, what are you waiting for? The launchpad token is fully taking off!

$PONS This time it’s for real. The stop-fall signal from the day before yesterday has been repeatedly reminding everyone in the square—those who entered have got it right. This time, it’s absolutely got to break to new highs. Currently, 31% of the tokens have already been burned. The circulating supply is under 700 million, and the market cap is $420 million.

$PUMP It consolidated for more than half a month, giving other platform tokens some breathing room. Our predicted range is 0.0033–0.0030U. The lowest pullback was to 0.0034U, meaning it found a bottom at the 60-day moving average. The next target is 0.0070U.

#STONK $SOL The newly launched platform token on-chain. It surged 18% yesterday and is now stabilizing after finding support at the 20-day moving average. With a market cap of 200 million, next it will continue pushing higher—now’s the time to buy. If you don’t get on the train, you’ll regret it.

#robinhoodchain #Solana

In a bull market, stop-losses may become a restraint on your profits.

1. If the bull market is established and the direction on the higher time frame is upward, then on the lower time frame—whether the buy is made during an uptrend or a downtrend—even if you get trapped, you won’t be stuck for long before you get out. This can lead many people to a misunderstanding: you can just hold on and you’ll make it through. And this kind of thing happens repeatedly throughout the entire bull market cycle. So, in some cases, stop-lossing in a bull market is like a shackle.

2. However, not using stop-losses in a bull market can have an extreme downward pull on the formation of your trading system. The market information you receive sends signals that cause your trading system to inevitably be missing the stop-loss link, and through countless validations, you’ve proven that it’s correct.

3. In a bear market, though, it will definitely lead you to ruin. In a bear market, every support will be effective only in the short term. In the medium to long term, it will be broken—just like in a bull market, when price fails to break through a resistance level in the short term, but a breakout on the medium to long term is only a matter of time.

So, stop-losses have a direct relationship with your trading moving in the opposite direction. It’s not that stop-losses are wrong; rather, most people can’t define the boundaries for when to use stop-losses. Ultimately, it comes down to the entry position determining the space available for the stop-loss.

#止损 #交易系统

@CZ Reminded you to buy the dip again yesterday.

Last time was before the huge surge on August 19, when it reminded you to buy. This time is no different—whenever there is a rapid drop, that’s the buying opportunity, and you should directly ignore the negative impact brought by the rate hike.

It seems that this time, #FOMC加息 , the market isn’t as panicked, and most people are still firmly viewing this as an early stage of the crypto bull market. The expected rebound target this time: 80K–82K.

#抄底

$ZEC The privacy-coin leader, won’t stop until it doesn’t get liquidated and it’s all over.

In the five-wave move, three waves have already been completed. The four-wave pullback has ended as well. From yesterday’s renewed rally of 20%, it’s already confirmed that the current five-wave sequence is underway.

My prediction is that ZEC’s top should be between 1500 and 2000. It won’t break the absolute extreme high. The previous round formed a double-top structure; whether this one will do the same is still to be confirmed. I looked around and it seems everyone is shorting—really stubbornly holding orders no matter what.

I don’t know what these “big shots” are thinking. I also don’t dare ask. The hardest-hit, after all this, should be those traders with futures positions.

#zcash上涨6%

Extremely hawkish! The Fed raises rates for the first time in three years, shattering the dream of a rate cut once and for all.

🔴 1. Policy turns sharply: Restarting rate hikes
The Fed announced a 25-basis-point increase to 3.75%-4.00%. The dot plot shows there will be one more rate hike within the year. The number of officials supporting continued tightening surged from 6 to 16, and the year-end interest-rate expectation was raised to 4.1%. Waller clearly stated that it will cancel some easing measures, provide no forward guidance, and will absolutely not pre-judge future decisions.

🔴 2. Inflation worries: Elevated and deeply rooted
The Fed significantly raised its inflation outlook. The 2026 PCE forecast is 3.7%, and it will not return to the 2% target until 2029. Waller said bluntly that “inflation is too high and has lasted too long.” Almost all commodity prices are rising, and the FOMC is “not confident” that inflation is falling.

🟢 3. Economic confidence: Strong enough not to fear rate hikes
The Fed has room to tighten because the fundamentals of the economy are extremely solid. The GDP growth outlook is steady (2.3%-2.4%). Waller emphasized that the economy is strengthening, capital expenditure is surging, credit is strong, and financial conditions are “not fundamentally restrictive.” At the same time, the Fed is closely monitoring developments and risks in the AI sector.

🔵 4. Market impact and conclusion
Rising Treasury yields are driven by three factors: a strong economy, competition for capital, and geopolitics. When asked about Trump and the European Central Bank, Waller declined to comment, underscoring its stance of defending central-bank independence.

It seems the crypto market isn’t buying the upside—there has been a strong rebound in the market. After bad news is priced in, it becomes good news; now it remains to be seen whether $BTC can break back above 82K, and whether $ETH can reach 2550. If, at some point next, either of the above targets is hit, it would indicate that the pullback has officially ended.

#FOMC议息会议 #美联储加息是否已成定局

$MarsCoin If nothing unexpected happens, the decline should be bottoming out. Since we moved into spot trading, the market value has fallen from 260 million USD to below 100 million USD. Even those who entered at 0.12 were trapped for several days in this pullback, which bottomed out around 0.85U.

A large bullish candle has appeared at the bottom, meaning the sell-off has likely ended and the bottoming signal is confirmed. Next, we need to closely watch how the hourly chart’s bullish trend develops. And $牛来 has strong support below 0.1—both of these are the ones we should focus on.

For the platform coin—#STONK —key support sits between 0.122 and 0.100U. The pullback is basically about done. Meanwhile, the sell-off bottoming signals for #PONS and $PUMP are also quite clear. This time, be careful and don’t miss your entry.

Jiuge’s view remains unchanged: whether there is a rate hike or not doesn’t affect the structure of the bull market—it only has an impact in the short term. Instead of panic, this is a chance to get in.

随着清晰法案以及美联储加息预期的影响，BTC、ETH的价格也双双跌破了20日线，目前正在测试关键支撑，但是热门叙事赛道却表现出了异常的抗跌性。

$ARB 这次率先止跌并逆势上涨，价格再次站上了颈线位0.150U，同时渣打银行预测2030年其价格将达到10美金。主要还是得益于其技术栈被#RH 链应用。

$UNI 这次也很优秀，跌幅算是比较少的， 还有 $ENA 这段时间没人提及的ENA，在颈线0.14反复震荡，止跌信号明显，接下来极有可能会率先起飞。

#ZEC 隐私龙头价格再次站上了1200U，这个是硬上上啊，被甩下车后一直没上去，我看很多人在做空这个品种，风险回报比不对称，尽可能低多为主。

#美联储加息是否已成定局 #隐私币