Tonight’s biggest “gossip” in the US evening session: the Fed hikes rates by 25 basis points, pushing the interest rate to 3.75%–4.00%—the first rate hike since 2023. According to the old script, this is basically a bearish “nuke.” But $BTC didn’t even break; the major coins collectively turned green. And $ZEC was even more aggressive—surging by more than 20%. A whole batch of analysts looked stunned.
The logic isn’t complicated: this hike is being driven by oil prices. Iran has stirred chaos around the Strait of Hormuz; the number of ships transiting drops from about 17 per day to just 3. Saudi’s export pipeline was also hit. WTI and Brent have been repeatedly bouncing around above $100. US diesel prices even surged to a historical high of $6.31 per gallon. Inflation won’t be suppressed, so the Fed has no choice but to bite the bullet and hike.
Where the money goes is the key: gold keeps getting yanked back and forth around the $4,300 level, while funds scour the world for assets that can hold up against inflation. Crypto didn’t drop this time, which suggests that “real gold and silver” is actually lying in wait in the market.
My take: rate hikes aren’t the scary part—stagflation is. If oil prices stay above $100 and get baked for another couple of months, risk assets will all have to shed a layer of skin. For the short term, $BTC just needs to hold above the prior low to count as a win. Don’t chase—wait for the pullback.
NFA DYOR
#比特币 #美联储 #加密货币 #Web3 #区块链
The logic isn’t complicated: this hike is being driven by oil prices. Iran has stirred chaos around the Strait of Hormuz; the number of ships transiting drops from about 17 per day to just 3. Saudi’s export pipeline was also hit. WTI and Brent have been repeatedly bouncing around above $100. US diesel prices even surged to a historical high of $6.31 per gallon. Inflation won’t be suppressed, so the Fed has no choice but to bite the bullet and hike.
Where the money goes is the key: gold keeps getting yanked back and forth around the $4,300 level, while funds scour the world for assets that can hold up against inflation. Crypto didn’t drop this time, which suggests that “real gold and silver” is actually lying in wait in the market.
My take: rate hikes aren’t the scary part—stagflation is. If oil prices stay above $100 and get baked for another couple of months, risk assets will all have to shed a layer of skin. For the short term, $BTC just needs to hold above the prior low to count as a win. Don’t chase—wait for the pullback.
NFA DYOR
#比特币 #美联储 #加密货币 #Web3 #区块链