Contract Order Book Daily Report｜9/17 Rate Hike Takes Effect Without Falling, But Rises Instead—A Signal That Gets the Face Slapped
At 11pm, I’ll review the script for today. The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points, and all 12 votes passed unanimously—the first time since July 2023. Under the old storyline, once such a rate-hike “bearish” event is realized, there should be a wave of selling pressure.
But instead, $BTC ’s current price is 76,446, up 1.02% over the past 24 hours. The funding rate is sitting at 0.008%—a mild, slightly bullish level. This isn’t crazy adding-on; it’s more like slowly being pulled back.
The active buy/sell order ratio is 1.01. Buyers are slightly ahead, but not to an extreme.
Open interest is 8.316 billion, up 2.3% in 24 hours, suggesting new money has entered and laid the foundation—not old positions stubbornly holding through.
The long position ratio is 60%. It’s concentrated, but not at an extreme level. The Fear & Greed Index slid from the greed zone in the past few days back to around 50 neutral—sentiment has cooled, yet the price hasn’t dropped. These signals don’t match.
When sentiment cools and the price holds up, there’s an explanation behind it.
The CSRC has, over the past two days, released an “innovative exemption” for tokenized securities. It grants a five-year, unregistered trading channel. In the same timeframe, S&P Global announced the acquisition of the on-chain security platform OpenZeppelin. Institutional narrative keeps adding fuel. News like this can prop up the market more than the rate hike itself.
$ETH is up 2.96% today, far stronger than $BTC ’s 1.02%. Altcoins are running faster than the majors this round, which shows capital isn’t standing still—it’s being moved outward.
Next, look at the squeeze risk for smaller coins.
For AVA, LSK, and CVC, their funding rates are all negative by several tens of basis points. The deepest went past -0.7%. When shorts are crowded to this degree, a rebound can easily trigger a squeeze.
On the other hand, for longs-crowded names like URNM, the funding rate is only a little above two tenths of a percent, so it’s not considered dangerous for now.
Going forward, just watch whether the funding rate can stay positive.
If the Fear & Greed Index keeps lingering in the neutral zone and the funding rate isn’t pushed back into negative, then this rally is being supported by capital structure—not a mood-driven frenzy. If the funding rate is driven back to negative and the long position ratio also falls, it means this move is only a sentiment spike after the rate-hike event; the signals that should be “closed” still need to be closed.
#合约盘口 # squeeze risk
This content is generated with assistance from Claude Fable 5 and is for informational reference only. Please verify it yourself.
At 11pm, I’ll review the script for today. The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points, and all 12 votes passed unanimously—the first time since July 2023. Under the old storyline, once such a rate-hike “bearish” event is realized, there should be a wave of selling pressure.
But instead, $BTC ’s current price is 76,446, up 1.02% over the past 24 hours. The funding rate is sitting at 0.008%—a mild, slightly bullish level. This isn’t crazy adding-on; it’s more like slowly being pulled back.
The active buy/sell order ratio is 1.01. Buyers are slightly ahead, but not to an extreme.
Open interest is 8.316 billion, up 2.3% in 24 hours, suggesting new money has entered and laid the foundation—not old positions stubbornly holding through.
The long position ratio is 60%. It’s concentrated, but not at an extreme level. The Fear & Greed Index slid from the greed zone in the past few days back to around 50 neutral—sentiment has cooled, yet the price hasn’t dropped. These signals don’t match.
When sentiment cools and the price holds up, there’s an explanation behind it.
The CSRC has, over the past two days, released an “innovative exemption” for tokenized securities. It grants a five-year, unregistered trading channel. In the same timeframe, S&P Global announced the acquisition of the on-chain security platform OpenZeppelin. Institutional narrative keeps adding fuel. News like this can prop up the market more than the rate hike itself.
$ETH is up 2.96% today, far stronger than $BTC ’s 1.02%. Altcoins are running faster than the majors this round, which shows capital isn’t standing still—it’s being moved outward.
Next, look at the squeeze risk for smaller coins.
For AVA, LSK, and CVC, their funding rates are all negative by several tens of basis points. The deepest went past -0.7%. When shorts are crowded to this degree, a rebound can easily trigger a squeeze.
On the other hand, for longs-crowded names like URNM, the funding rate is only a little above two tenths of a percent, so it’s not considered dangerous for now.
Going forward, just watch whether the funding rate can stay positive.
If the Fear & Greed Index keeps lingering in the neutral zone and the funding rate isn’t pushed back into negative, then this rally is being supported by capital structure—not a mood-driven frenzy. If the funding rate is driven back to negative and the long position ratio also falls, it means this move is only a sentiment spike after the rate-hike event; the signals that should be “closed” still need to be closed.
#合约盘口 # squeeze risk
This content is generated with assistance from Claude Fable 5 and is for informational reference only. Please verify it yourself.
