Today’s market action can be summed up in four words—good news after the bad.
Last night at 2:00 a.m., the U.S. Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point rate hike, raising the federal funds rate to 3.75%–4.00%.
This was the first rate hike by the Fed since 2023, and also the first interest-rate increase since Worsh took office.
The resolution was unanimously approved with a 12–0 vote.
On the same day, the Senate rejected a procedural motion to advance the CLARITY Act, with 49 votes in favor and 50 against. After more than a year of refinement, this crypto regulatory legislation was officially put on hold.
Hike + the bill collapsed. Based on past three months’ experience, either of these two risks alone would be enough to drive Bitcoin through 75,000.
But today, Bitcoin didn’t keep collapsing. Instead, it rebounded all the way from its intraday low of $75,385 and even moved above $77,000.
Bitcoin is up about 1.1% over the past 24 hours. Ethereum has risen to $2,441, up 1.4%. Solana is up 2.4%, and BNB is up 1.6%.
After 115,716 liquidations, the market didn’t keep falling.
This isn’t a bull market returning—this is just the bad news being used up.
1,
First, let’s break down last night’s FOMC outcome.
The Federal Open Market Committee decided to raise rates by 25 basis points with a 12–0 vote. The target interest rate range is raised to 3.75%–4.00%.
This is the Fed’s first rate hike since July 2023—and the first time Wösch, as chair, has raised rates.
The statement contains only 131 words.
The Fed believes economic activity remains in steady expansion; consumer spending is resilient, productivity growth is strong, and capital investment is robust.
The most notable change is:
The statement removed the earlier wording that attributed high inflation to supply shocks.
This means Wösch and his colleagues no longer view inflation as a temporary issue that can be “fixed by supply,” but instead believe price pressures have spread to broader areas.
The dot plot is more hawkish than the statement.
The latest dot plot shows the median 2026 rate has been revised up from 3.8% in June to 4.1%. The median 2027 rate has been revised up from 3.6% to 4.1%. The median 2028 rate has been revised up from 3.4% to 3.9%.
Of the 19 attending committee members, 18 submitted forecasts: 12 expect another rate hike within the year, while only 2 believe policy should be left unchanged.
Wösch himself did not submit a dot plot.
The economic forecast summary (SEP) is also hawkish:
The forecast for 2026 core PCE growth was revised up to 3.4%, and overall PCE was revised up to 3.7%. The Fed expects inflation to return to the 2% target only by 2029, a full year later than previously expected.
Wösch said at the press conference: “Inflation is still at a high level.
Today’s policy action will help inflation return to the committee’s 2% target faster.
Current economic resilience is strong. Consumption, capital expenditures, and the labor market are all performing steadily, and they can withstand this tightening.
He also added a key line: “It’s hard to say whether overall financial conditions are restrictive.
Most committee members agree with this, so we’re withdrawing some of the loosened policy.
Translate into plain, easy-to-understand terms: The Fed believes current rates aren’t high enough yet, and there may be more than one rate hike.
Thirteen’s take:
A delivered rate hike by itself isn’t scary— the market had already priced in a 87% probability. What really needs to be watched is the signal from the dot plot and the SEP: another hike may happen this year, the 2027 rate stays at 4.1%, and inflation won’t return to 2% until 2029.
This means that keeping higher rates for longer isn’t just a slogan; it’s a formal path written into the Fed’s forecasts.
But today’s market reaction shows that the worst-case expectations have already been priced in.
However, Thirteen still believes that in the long run, the bull market needs to wait longer.
2,
The signals from liquidity are not encouraging.
According to SoSoValue data, on September 16 (US Eastern Time), US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $296 million in net outflows—marking the second consecutive day of net outflows.
BlackRock’s IBIT had a one-day outflow of $144 million, ARKB outflow of $84.4 million, and Fidelity’s FBTC outflow of $52.72 million. Morgan Stanley’s MSBT is the only Bitcoin ETF with net inflows, at $3.47 million.
The same day, the spot Ethereum ETF recorded $224 million in net outflows, also for the second consecutive day.
BlackRock’s ETHA outflow is $110 million; Fidelity’s FETH outflow is $55.58 million.
As of now, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $95.19 billion, accounting for 6.22% of Bitcoin’s total market cap, with cumulative total net inflows of $54.57 billion.
Ethereum ETF total net assets: $15.16 billion. Total cumulative net inflows: $13.15 billion.
CLARITY bill fails + FOMC rate hike. In the span of two days, institutions choose to “retreat first.”
$296 million in BTC outflows + $224 million in ETH outflows—totaling $520 million leaving the market— is the most direct reaction to policy uncertainty.
But Morgan Stanley’s MSBT is still buying against the trend, meaning not all institutions are retreating.
3,
Today’s on-chain data paints a picture where bulls and bears are intertwined.
Market makers are transferring chips to exchanges.
According to Onchain Lens monitoring, the market maker Wintermute transferred about 2,550 BTC to Binance, worth about $193 million.
When such institutions move assets to exchanges, it usually involves needs like liquidity management or executing client orders.
Stop-loss sell pressure from short-term holders is heating up.
On-chain data shows that the amount of Bitcoin transferred to exchanges by short-term holders rose from about 19,400 BTC to 33,100 BTC. Of this, around 23,200 BTC is in an unrealized loss—indicating that stop-loss selling pressure has clearly intensified.
But there are also funds taking the opposite approach.
“BTC OG insider whale” agent Garrett Jin withdrew 35,001 ETH from Binance (worth $85 million) and deposited it into Hyperliquid.
A ZEC whale withdrew a total of 15,300 ZEC from three exchanges (worth about $17.92 million).
Thirteen’s take: Wintermute’s inflow and the stop-loss selling pressure from short-term holders are the direct reasons for today’s price being under pressure. But the “smart money” whales are still extracting ETH and ZEC from exchanges, which shows they haven’t fully retreated. They’re rotating from Bitcoin into altcoins, not leaving the crypto market.
4,
Today’s Fear & Greed Index is 50–51, in a “neutral” state—unchanged from yesterday’s 51, or down by about 1 point.
Average over the past 7 days: 58. Average over the past 30 days: 65.
A month ago, this index was still in the “greed” range of 65.
The CLARITY bill failing and the FOMC rate hike sent sentiment from greed back to neutral.
But it’s worth noting that the index didn’t drop into fear. After the market digested the negative news, sentiment stabilized.
In altcoins, the PayFi sector is up 5.03% over 24 hours. Zcash (ZEC) is surging 23.28%, and Dash (DASH) is up 17.21%.
ZEC’s surge, and Paradigm co-founder Matt Huang disclosed that the company has invested in Zcash directly related to it. ZEC price is around $1,338, up about 20% over 24 hours.
Thirteen thinks: the Fear & Greed Index fell from 65 to 50, completing the emotional shift from “greed” to “neutral.”
But the market didn’t fall into fear, which suggests most of the negative news has already been priced in.
The contrarian surge in the ZEC and PayFi sectors suggests that capital is looking for structural opportunities outside of Bitcoin—an important signal to watch.
But you buddies around Thirteen—don’t chase. The risk is too high.
5,
Right now, Bitcoin is around $76,800–$77,000. The rate hike has been delivered, the bill has failed—but the market has rebounded.
Long-term spot: continue holding.
115,716 liquidations, $520 million in ETF outflows, the CLARITY bill failing—after all the negative news hit, Bitcoin didn’t break below $75,000.
Strategy has 845,050 BTC in unrealized profit worth 2.2 billion. Saylor has not sold a single coin.
There’s no reason to sell the chips bought through $65,000 DCA at this point. But the September FOMC dot plot suggests there may be another hike this year, and a high-rate environment will keep capping valuations.
Near-term positioning: mainly wait and see; don’t chase higher prices.
$77,000–$77,500 is the near-term resistance zone, while $75,000 is strong support. The CLARITY bill failing means the regulatory vacuum period is extended; the institutional funds’ structural entry barriers will still exist in the medium term.
The right-side signal should be: the ETF turns to net inflows for two consecutive days, or the price holds above $78,000 on rising volume.
Dollar-cost averaging strategy: strictly follow discipline.
Lightly test in the $75,000–$76,000 range (no more than 10%–15% of your cash position).
Add to positions every time it drops by about $2,000. Keep at least 20%–30% in cash— the dot plot points to another hike this year, and the FOMC meetings in October or December could bring a new round of volatility.
Key focus this week:
September 18 (Friday): US August PCE inflation data
How well the ceasefire pledge by the Houthis is being carried out
Whether ETF fund outflows can narrow after the FOMC decision
Whether the rotation momentum in the ZEC and PayFi sectors can continue
6,
Honestly, last night, two things happened at the same time.
The Fed voted unanimously to raise rates, and the dot plot points to another hike this year. The Senate rejected the CLARITY bill 49–50. After waiting a full year for a regulatory framework, the crypto industry’s plan is officially stalled.
Based on the past three months’ experience, Bitcoin should have fallen to 73,000 or even 70,000. But today, it’s above 77,000.
Why?
Because the worst-case expectations were already priced in over the past week.
A 87% probability of a rate hike, and a 13% probability of the CLARITY bill passing,
The market already knew these two bombs were going to explode. Once they actually explode, there’s nothing left to panic about.
This isn’t “the bull market is back.” This is “the bad news is used up.”
Strategy has 845,050 BTC in unrealized profit worth 2.2 billion. Saylor hasn’t bought or sold for the second straight week. ZEC is up 23%, and the PayFi sector is up 5%. C
The market is switching from “indiscriminate sell-offs” to “structural rotation.” Capital hasn’t left crypto; it’s simply looking for opportunities beyond Bitcoin.
For those who cut losses when Bitcoin fell below 75,000—when they see the price at 77,000, how do they feel?
The cruelty of the market is that it always makes everyone feel like they made the wrong move.
Hold on, but don’t chase. The real test is the October FOMC— the dot plot says there may be one more. Whether the market believes it or not will be known then.
Thirteen’s circle is still recruiting. No free order flow, no tricks. You pay—I provide my judgment.
At a moment like this, when the bad news has run out, a calm and rational voice is especially valuable.
The above is personal investment analysis and does not constitute investment advice. The market is risky; decisions should be made cautiously.