I’ve been watching the Fed closely, and this is a real shift in the policy backdrop.

The Fed raised rates 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00%, its first hike since July 2023.

What matters now isn’t the 25 bps alone. Inflation is still elevated, and the Fed’s projections point to another possible hike this year.

After years of waiting for easier money, the question has changed:

How long will tighter policy stay?

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