◆ Encryption Clarity Act, the night it passed, the prediction probability that the Polymarket bill would pass was about 18%~30%.
It didn’t pass; BTC briefly dipped below 75,000 and then returned above 75,000.
◆ The FOMC meeting at the Federal Reserve that night: the probability of not hiking rates on @polymarket was 11%~14%.
As a result, the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points, and BTC never dropped below 75,000 even briefly.
◆ On September 18, Japan’s interest rate decision: the probability of Japan hiking rates on Polymarket is 100%.
How will BTC move?
It didn’t pass; BTC briefly dipped below 75,000 and then returned above 75,000.
◆ The FOMC meeting at the Federal Reserve that night: the probability of not hiking rates on @polymarket was 11%~14%.
As a result, the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points, and BTC never dropped below 75,000 even briefly.
◆ On September 18, Japan’s interest rate decision: the probability of Japan hiking rates on Polymarket is 100%.
How will BTC move?
