#点阵图预示2026年再加息一次 This is the most worth-watching chart: in the Fed’s economic projections released last night, the median federal funds rate at the end of 2026 reaches 4.1%. Now the target range is already 3.75%–4%, which means the dot plot still leaves room for further rate hikes.
This is exactly what A-jian analyzed earlier: whether there would be signals that the market is waiting for—a possible additional round of rate hikes.
So after the Fed, the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield rose to about 4.71% at one point, but the 10-year yield stayed around 5% without continuing to break upward meaningfully. This is very typical of bear flattening: tighter policy in the front end, with the long end relatively stable.
This suggests the market believes short-term monetary policy needs to be tighter, but expectations for the long-term economy and inflation have not deteriorated in tandem.
This is exactly what A-jian analyzed earlier: whether there would be signals that the market is waiting for—a possible additional round of rate hikes.
So after the Fed, the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield rose to about 4.71% at one point, but the 10-year yield stayed around 5% without continuing to break upward meaningfully. This is very typical of bear flattening: tighter policy in the front end, with the long end relatively stable.
This suggests the market believes short-term monetary policy needs to be tighter, but expectations for the long-term economy and inflation have not deteriorated in tandem.
