The chart says there is one more round before year-end. The market has only been pricing it as happening at the end of the year. Everyone is reading that line—“one more before year-end”—on the dot plot, but what is truly being moved is the pricing of the entire policy path. On September 16, the target range was raised by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, with a unanimous 12 votes. The statement removed the phrase “the higher inflation part comes from supply shocks” and replaced it with “domestic spending remains resilient.”
We need to add a premise here: the dot plot’s year-end values are written down by each official, and the chart does not provide the corresponding months. Among the 18 officials who submitted forecasts, 12 wrote “add 1 more during the year,” 4 wrote “add 2 more,” and 2 wrote “no change.” In total, 16 officials believe there is at least one more time during the year; none of those 16 points specifies a month.
When I look at the distribution of the dots, the first set I notice is the 2027 group: 8 officials argue for adding one more next year, 6 say no change for the full year, 3 say a cut of 2 times, and 1 says a cut of 4 times. Some people write “continue tightening,” while others write “cut.” The disagreement is not smoothed out by the median. The median lands at 4.1% at year-end, and 2027 is also 4.1%.
Another reading is in the prices on the day of the policy decision. Interest-rate futures lifted the cumulative expected tightening by the end of 2026 by 7 basis points to 57 basis points before the vote, and then by 18 basis points to 106 basis points for September 2027. Two-year yields rose 13 basis points to 4.73%, and 10-year yields rose 6 basis points to 5.01%. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.6% to 100.3, while gold futures fell 2.1%. As for the next October meeting, before the vote the market priced only about a 44% chance for it.
Based on the current reading, what gets moved this time is the price of the entire path, not the schedule of any particular policy meeting. The falsification condition should be stated more narrowly: if before the October meeting the market’s probability stayed above half, and if it truly moves again, then this chart must be interpreted as an adjacent itinerary, and what I said earlier would be invalid. If it continues to land at year-end, or if the year-end median in the next chart returns from 4.1% back to around 3.9%, then the disagreement would still remain on the chart. On Binance, you can find both sides of the bitcoin spot and wealth-management angles, and the platform token BNB sits on the same stage; discussions in the Square community have been continuously updated. This article is for opinion recording and does not constitute investment advice.$BTC $ETH $BNB #点阵图预示2026年再加息一次
We need to add a premise here: the dot plot’s year-end values are written down by each official, and the chart does not provide the corresponding months. Among the 18 officials who submitted forecasts, 12 wrote “add 1 more during the year,” 4 wrote “add 2 more,” and 2 wrote “no change.” In total, 16 officials believe there is at least one more time during the year; none of those 16 points specifies a month.
When I look at the distribution of the dots, the first set I notice is the 2027 group: 8 officials argue for adding one more next year, 6 say no change for the full year, 3 say a cut of 2 times, and 1 says a cut of 4 times. Some people write “continue tightening,” while others write “cut.” The disagreement is not smoothed out by the median. The median lands at 4.1% at year-end, and 2027 is also 4.1%.
Another reading is in the prices on the day of the policy decision. Interest-rate futures lifted the cumulative expected tightening by the end of 2026 by 7 basis points to 57 basis points before the vote, and then by 18 basis points to 106 basis points for September 2027. Two-year yields rose 13 basis points to 4.73%, and 10-year yields rose 6 basis points to 5.01%. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.6% to 100.3, while gold futures fell 2.1%. As for the next October meeting, before the vote the market priced only about a 44% chance for it.
Based on the current reading, what gets moved this time is the price of the entire path, not the schedule of any particular policy meeting. The falsification condition should be stated more narrowly: if before the October meeting the market’s probability stayed above half, and if it truly moves again, then this chart must be interpreted as an adjacent itinerary, and what I said earlier would be invalid. If it continues to land at year-end, or if the year-end median in the next chart returns from 4.1% back to around 3.9%, then the disagreement would still remain on the chart. On Binance, you can find both sides of the bitcoin spot and wealth-management angles, and the platform token BNB sits on the same stage; discussions in the Square community have been continuously updated. This article is for opinion recording and does not constitute investment advice.$BTC $ETH $BNB #点阵图预示2026年再加息一次
