after last night’s Fed meeting when the rate hike was implemented, why didn’t the market fall sharply?
The reason is actually quite simple: before the rate hike was implemented, the market had already priced it in.
Everyone has already more or less digested the rate-hike expectations.
Of course, many people are also waiting and watching,
People only took action the moment the rate hike happened,
this is also why, the moment the rate hike was actually carried out,
and the market still has some volatility,
But to be honest, that amount of volatility really isn’t as big as before.
judging by the trading volume, at that time point,
and both sides—bulls and bears—were fighting hard,
The bulls think that bearish news landing is bullish,
The bears think that the rate hike and the expected rate hike in the next quarter still exist,
which is why the trading volume has been able to increase so much.
As for my personal trading,
I think there are indeed many things worth summarizing about the realization of this important news and the BTC price action before it landed:
1. For Bitcoin: before the rate hike lands, there won’t be a deterministic rebound. All rebounds are just decoy moves, and that’s why I suffered a loss in this regard yesterday, eroding a large amount of principal. Next time, be sure to pay attention.
2. For gold, it’s the same logic as with Bitcoin. Although yesterday I clearly felt that gold was moving stronger, after the rate hike landed, it was pushed back together with it. So next time, be sure to pay attention: for this kind of big news, you should wait until the certainty/confirmed news lands before determining the direction—not impulsively chase highs without the news having landed.
3. Including yesterday, up to now, I’ve been telling myself: since the big direction is to go long, then look for opportunities to go long. And going long must only be done after seeing some reversal candles. But the reason I was so reckless yesterday and got my principal partially worn down is that I didn’t follow my own rules. I chased after a breakout on a smaller timeframe, but in fact there were no such reversal candles. And today, I’m still going long. The reasons supporting my long are:
1）There is a double bottom formation on the hourly level.
2）The second bottom—when the Fed meeting signaled that it might raise rates—did not lead to further volume expansion and deeper probing, nor did it create a new low. That indicates that the longs are still clearly in the majority.
3）When the Fed talks about raising rates, the trading volume is very large—meaning that the portion of capital that was shorting has already been absorbed by those who went long.
So currently, I’m still holding a long position. Of course, set the stop-loss at the previous low, and keep closely observing how the market changes at all times.