On September 16, the Fed unanimously approved a 25-basis-point rate hike, bringing the interest rate up to 3.75%-4.00%—the first hike since 2023.
Then the dot plot came out—out of 18 officials, 16 expect at least one more hike this year.
The script where the market rises immediately after the hike didn’t happen.
The Dow fell by 750 points, the S&P dropped 0.8%, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield returned to its 2007 peak level. Gundlach said one thing: "This is almost certainly not the peak of the federal funds rate."
Now, the probability of a rate hike in October is around 50%.
For BTC: at the press conference, Wosch’s wording was more hawkish; U.S. stocks flipped from rising to falling immediately. BTC also faced pressure in tandem, and still traded in the $75,000-$76,000 range.
But one thing is what history decides:
Across the past three tightening cycles, BTC averaged a 67% gain in the 12 months after the last hike. The key is judging whether this is the final hike—the 16/18 dot plot suggests this year isn’t over yet.
Gold, however, rose today—inflation-hedging demand is increasing.
For BTC and gold, after September 16, how do you plan to allocate?
$BTC
$QQQ
#美联储加息25基点美股收跌
Then the dot plot came out—out of 18 officials, 16 expect at least one more hike this year.
The script where the market rises immediately after the hike didn’t happen.
The Dow fell by 750 points, the S&P dropped 0.8%, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield returned to its 2007 peak level. Gundlach said one thing: "This is almost certainly not the peak of the federal funds rate."
Now, the probability of a rate hike in October is around 50%.
For BTC: at the press conference, Wosch’s wording was more hawkish; U.S. stocks flipped from rising to falling immediately. BTC also faced pressure in tandem, and still traded in the $75,000-$76,000 range.
But one thing is what history decides:
Across the past three tightening cycles, BTC averaged a 67% gain in the 12 months after the last hike. The key is judging whether this is the final hike—the 16/18 dot plot suggests this year isn’t over yet.
Gold, however, rose today—inflation-hedging demand is increasing.
For BTC and gold, after September 16, how do you plan to allocate?
$BTC
$QQQ
#美联储加息25基点美股收跌
