đ The BCV moves the piece: now deposits pay
The Central Bank of Venezuela changed the rules of the game for the domestic banking sector. Itâs no longer just about making credit more expensive or absorbing liquidity through placements: now the agency has decided to remunerate the money customers keep in banks, including demand accounts, with a minimum rate of 10% per year. The move, according to economist CĂ©sar Aristimuño, director of Aristimuño Herrera & Asociados, is not a minor detail: it adds an additional annualized expense to the banking system that is around US$800 million.
The reason for the amount is simple. Almost all the money collected by Venezuelan banks is in checking accountsâaround 93% of total depositsâand until recently those accounts generated virtually no return for customers. That situation is over. Now banks will have to pay for that money, and in the case of savings, the rate rose from 32% to 42% annually, while time deposits went from 36% to 46%, although the latter represent less than 1% of the total collected.
đ What is the BCV trying to achieve with this?
In the words of Aristimuño himself, the intent is clear: for people to stop rushing to buy dollars and start taking a second look at the bolĂvar as a savings instrument. If your checking account pays 10% per year, and the bolĂvar depreciates by less than that in a month, the math starts to work in favor of the national currency, at least marginally.
The technical detail that few mention is that the rate is applied to daily balances. That means the real return can come close to the monthly change in the exchange rate, as long as depreciation slows down. In a country where the parallel dollar has historically been the go-to refuge, that is an ambitious bet.
đ The side effect: competition between banks
Aristimuño also anticipates another phenomenon worth keeping an eye on: since 10% is a floor and not a ceiling, banks are going to fight to attract and retain clients by offering better rates. In other words, we could see a war of returns among institutions, something unprecedented in the Venezuelan market. Whoever has the money will have the negotiating power.
However, that same incentive can generate greater deposit mobility between banks. Users will start moving their balances to where they get paid more, forcing institutions to adjust their treasury strategies on the fly.
đ° What this means for the P2P market and USDT users
This is where PitbullChain puts the spotlight. The Venezuelan P2P market, to a large extent, runs on the need of users to convert bolĂvares to USDT and vice versa. If the BCV manages to keep part of that money sitting in bank accounts generating returns, the buying pressure on the parallel dollar could fall, and along with it the USDT price versus the bolĂvar.
But the impact wonât be immediate or automatic. There are three factors working against that scenario:
đĄïž 1. Inflation is still the elephant in the room
A 10% annual rate can hardly compensate for inflation that is still moving at rates far higher. Aristimuño himself acknowledges that reaching 10% annual inflation is currently a distant goal. As long as that gap exists, USDT will continue to be the natural refuge for anyone trying to protect their purchasing power.
â ïž 2. The exchange-rate gap wonât disappear with a decree
The demand for foreign currency in Venezuela is driven by multiple factors: imports, distrust in the financial system, the need to dollarize savings, payments to the outside world. Paying interest on checking accounts may ease some of that pressure, but it wonât eliminate it. P2P will remain the most accessible channel for anyone who needs dollars or stablecoins immediately.
đ§ 3. Banks are going to pass the cost on
US$800 million a year doesnât come out of thin air. The banking sector will have to fund that expense somehow: either by cutting other benefits, raising commissions, or reducing appetite for loans. In fact, Aristimuño warns that the new interest-rate structure for commercial loans and microloansânow with a floor of 16% per yearâwill discourage demand for financing, right when economic activity needs credit.
đ Read the full article: https://pitbullchain.com/noticias/bcv-paga-10-por-tus-cuentas-adios-al-dolar-o-fiesta-para-el-p2p-420685
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