Federal Reserve Dot Plot: The expectation is that there will be one more rate hike in 2026

Federal Reserve: The forecast for the U.S. 2026 core PCE inflation rate is 3.4%, and it is expected to be 3.3% in June.

The forecast for 2027 is 2.5%, the same as the previous estimate (2.5%).

The forecast for 2028 is 2.2%, up from the prior estimate (2.1%).

The forecast for 2029 is 2.0%.

Market reaction: The two-year U.S. Treasury yield rebounded from near the day’s low of 4.5975%, rising to around the 4.65% level after the Fed decision statement.

After the interest rate decision was released, the three major U.S. stock indexes edged higher: the Nasdaq rose to 0.9%, Bitcoin’s gains widened to above $76,000, and gold traded with slight fluctuations.
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