Fed Rate Watch: What Comes Next for Markets?
The September FOMC meeting is now the key event for markets, and the question is no longer just whether the Fed moves by 25 bps — it is what that move could signal for the months ahead.
August core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, while market expectations for a 25-basis-point hike this week have moved close to 90%. That makes the Fed's next decision especially important for risk assets.
A 25bp hike may already be largely priced in, so for me, the bigger question is the message that comes with it.
If the Fed stays hawkish, higher-rate expectations could keep pressure on BTC, tech stocks and gold, especially if yields continue moving higher.
If the decision comes with a softer forward outlook, markets could interpret it differently, with risk assets potentially getting some relief.
Gold is the trade I’ll be watching closely. Rather than chasing the first reaction, I want to see how gold/XAUT behaves around the FOMC decision and whether the move is supported by the broader rate and yield reaction.
My approach: stay flexible, avoid unnecessary leverage, and let price action confirm the direction before increasing exposure.
The Fed decision is the event.
The market reaction is the signal.
#FedRateWatch
The September FOMC meeting is now the key event for markets, and the question is no longer just whether the Fed moves by 25 bps — it is what that move could signal for the months ahead.
August core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, while market expectations for a 25-basis-point hike this week have moved close to 90%. That makes the Fed's next decision especially important for risk assets.
A 25bp hike may already be largely priced in, so for me, the bigger question is the message that comes with it.
If the Fed stays hawkish, higher-rate expectations could keep pressure on BTC, tech stocks and gold, especially if yields continue moving higher.
If the decision comes with a softer forward outlook, markets could interpret it differently, with risk assets potentially getting some relief.
Gold is the trade I’ll be watching closely. Rather than chasing the first reaction, I want to see how gold/XAUT behaves around the FOMC decision and whether the move is supported by the broader rate and yield reaction.
My approach: stay flexible, avoid unnecessary leverage, and let price action confirm the direction before increasing exposure.
The Fed decision is the event.
The market reaction is the signal.
#FedRateWatch
