The September FOMC meeting could be one of the most important events of this week for markets. August data showed core inflation rising 0.3% month over month, while annual core inflation reached 2.4%. At the same time, market expectations for a 25-basis-point rate hike are approaching 90%.
My base case is a 25-basis-point rate hike, but the more important question for me isn’t just the September decision—it’s what the Federal Reserve will say about the upcoming meetings. If the hike is linked to a return of inflation pressures, this could mark the start of a more tightening phase. But if the Fed views it as a one-off move, its impact on markets could be very different.
If there’s a hike, I monitor BTC, technology stocks, and gold with caution. Higher yields and the dollar could pressure high-risk assets like Bitcoin and technology stocks, while gold may also face pressure if real yields and the dollar rise. But the market’s reaction depends largely on whether the decision was already expected or came more hawkish than investors anticipated.
My plan is not to enter directly due to the news headline. I’ll wait for price action after the decision, then monitor liquidity, trading volume, market structure, and BTC across different timeframes. If a clear opportunity appears, I’ll enter with specific risk management; if the market is choppy, I’ll stay out of the trade.
For me, the most important thing after FOMC isn’t just “hike or not,” but how the market will react to the decision and whether price confirms the move.
#FedRateWatch #FOMC #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #FederalReserve