🦅 FOMC WATCH: 92.7% PROBABILITY OF A RATE HIKE AND WARNING FOR THE S&P 500 📉🇺🇸
Financial markets are closely monitoring the upcoming FOMC meeting, where derivatives tools project—almost with complete certainty—an adjustment in the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.
Key points from the macroeconomic outlook:
📊 CME FedWatch: Assigns a 92.7% probability to a 25-basis-point increase in September, raising the benchmark rate to the 3.75% – 4.00% range.
📉 Historical pattern: Axel Adler Jr. noted that, after the Fed’s “first moves,” the S&P 500 fell in 5 of the last 7 occasions during the six weeks that followed, recording an average decline of 2.83%.
⚠️ Trend vs. Rule: The analysis warns that 7 episodes over 38 years represent a small sample size, so this historical behavior should be taken as a reference—not as a guaranteed forecast.
Do you think the market has already priced in the Fed’s rate adjustment, or will we see volatility in stocks and the crypto market after the announcement?
💬👇 I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments!
#FOMC #InterestRates #SP500 #Macroeconomy #WallStreet
$BTC
$BNB
$ETH
Financial markets are closely monitoring the upcoming FOMC meeting, where derivatives tools project—almost with complete certainty—an adjustment in the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.
Key points from the macroeconomic outlook:
📊 CME FedWatch: Assigns a 92.7% probability to a 25-basis-point increase in September, raising the benchmark rate to the 3.75% – 4.00% range.
📉 Historical pattern: Axel Adler Jr. noted that, after the Fed’s “first moves,” the S&P 500 fell in 5 of the last 7 occasions during the six weeks that followed, recording an average decline of 2.83%.
⚠️ Trend vs. Rule: The analysis warns that 7 episodes over 38 years represent a small sample size, so this historical behavior should be taken as a reference—not as a guaranteed forecast.
Do you think the market has already priced in the Fed’s rate adjustment, or will we see volatility in stocks and the crypto market after the announcement?
💬👇 I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments!
#FOMC #InterestRates #SP500 #Macroeconomy #WallStreet
$BTC
$BNB
$ETH
