2:00 PM Eastern time: the Fed announces its decision, with a new chair at the helm,
Today is Kevin Warsh’s first vote as Fed chair, and the odds strongly point (87–92% depending on different markets) to a 0.25% rate hike, the first since 2023. That would take the rate to the 3.75%–4.00% range.
Here is the detail that may matter more than the hike itself: when something is already “priced in” by the market (like this move), what really moves price is the message that comes with the decision.
Two scenarios:
🟢 Rates go UP BUT signals that there won’t be more hikes soon → relief; Bitcoin could try to recover $80,000.
🔴 Rates go UP AND keeps a hawkish tone for the rest of the year → more pressure, risk of a retest toward $72,000.
This year’s pattern hasn’t been “hike = down, pause = up”—it’s been pure surprise depending on the tone of the message.
Which scenario do you give more probability to today? 👇
#FED #Bitcoin #KevinWarsh #CreatorPad
Today is Kevin Warsh’s first vote as Fed chair, and the odds strongly point (87–92% depending on different markets) to a 0.25% rate hike, the first since 2023. That would take the rate to the 3.75%–4.00% range.
Here is the detail that may matter more than the hike itself: when something is already “priced in” by the market (like this move), what really moves price is the message that comes with the decision.
Two scenarios:
🟢 Rates go UP BUT signals that there won’t be more hikes soon → relief; Bitcoin could try to recover $80,000.
🔴 Rates go UP AND keeps a hawkish tone for the rest of the year → more pressure, risk of a retest toward $72,000.
This year’s pattern hasn’t been “hike = down, pause = up”—it’s been pure surprise depending on the tone of the message.
Which scenario do you give more probability to today? 👇
#FED #Bitcoin #KevinWarsh #CreatorPad
