Tonight’s real event is the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision meeting.
Markets have basically priced in a 25-basis-point hike as the main storyline. Reuters also recently noted that the market broadly expects this to be the first rate hike since 2023. The 10-year US Treasury yield has already broken above 5%, and $BTC was pushed down to around $76,000 today.
But I’m actually more bullish.
The reason is simple: in the past few days, the market has already been pricing in the hike.
As Treasury yields moved higher, BTC fell back from above 80,000, and even the failure of the CLARITY Act vote—all of it has been digested by the market. Reuters’ data even shows that the 25-delta skew on BTC options turned positive starting August 20, the first time in the past 12 months it has clearly tilted toward call options.
So tonight, if it’s just a normal 25-basis-point hike and the dot plot is not more hawkish than what the market expects, I think BTC may actually have a chance to move higher.
$ZEC $ETH
Markets have basically priced in a 25-basis-point hike as the main storyline. Reuters also recently noted that the market broadly expects this to be the first rate hike since 2023. The 10-year US Treasury yield has already broken above 5%, and $BTC was pushed down to around $76,000 today.
But I’m actually more bullish.
The reason is simple: in the past few days, the market has already been pricing in the hike.
As Treasury yields moved higher, BTC fell back from above 80,000, and even the failure of the CLARITY Act vote—all of it has been digested by the market. Reuters’ data even shows that the 25-delta skew on BTC options turned positive starting August 20, the first time in the past 12 months it has clearly tilted toward call options.
So tonight, if it’s just a normal 25-basis-point hike and the dot plot is not more hawkish than what the market expects, I think BTC may actually have a chance to move higher.
$ZEC $ETH