A rate hike is in line with expectations; what would be a surprise is not hiking. The focus tonight isn’t on whether the Fed will raise rates, but on the dot plot: how many officials support the hikes and how many times they expect to raise rates this year—that’s the real point.
In other words, you need to see whether it signals the start of a long cycle of consecutive rate hikes, or whether it’s just another hike and then they stop. These two scenarios have very different market reactions:
1. If there are consecutive hikes: then BTC and ETH will still have to fall further.
2. If it’s only one hike and then they don’t continue: that means the bearish news has been priced in, so damn it—BTC and ETH have to V-shape rebound.
3. If they don’t hike at all: that would be an upside surprise; damn it, they’ll V-rebound hard.
$BTC
$ETH
In other words, you need to see whether it signals the start of a long cycle of consecutive rate hikes, or whether it’s just another hike and then they stop. These two scenarios have very different market reactions:
1. If there are consecutive hikes: then BTC and ETH will still have to fall further.
2. If it’s only one hike and then they don’t continue: that means the bearish news has been priced in, so damn it—BTC and ETH have to V-shape rebound.
3. If they don’t hike at all: that would be an upside surprise; damn it, they’ll V-rebound hard.
$BTC
$ETH