My view is very straightforward: rate hikes are basically a sure thing. In August, core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month. CME data shows the market’s odds for a 25-basis-point hike this week have already approached 90%. If the Fed doesn’t raise rates at this time, it would instead undermine its credibility. The real uncertainty isn’t whether it will hike, but whether the dot plot will signal another hike later this year, and whether Chair Powell’s press conference wording comes across as more hawkish or more dovish. For the market, as long as it’s not a more-than-expected hawkish statement, it could actually open a “sell-off disappointment turns into a rebound” window. BTC may stabilize in the short term if it’s taking advantage of the moment, but don’t expect a reversal from this—trend direction will still depend on how U.S. Treasury yields behave. I’ll take a light position and wait and see; once the decision is out, I’ll add to my position in line with the move, and I won’t bet on direction from the left side of the chart.

$BTC #BTC #Has the Fed rate hike already become a foregone conclusion?