Rates haven't gone up since 2023. That streak might end in the next few hours.
August core CPI came in hot at 0.3% MoM, and odds of a 25bp hike this week are near 90%. My take: this isn't a one-off. Warsh went hawkish at Jackson Hole, three FOMC members already wanted to hike in July, and oil's climbing again. Watch the dot plot, not just the decision — that's what tells us if a full cycle is starting.
If the hike lands:
$BTC
Short-term bearish — tighter liquidity, less risk appetite. But it's mostly priced in already. The real danger is Warsh signaling more hikes ahead.
Tech stocks: Bearish, and more sensitive than crypto — growth valuations get hit hardest by higher rates.
Gold: Mixed. Normally bearish on hikes, but it's holding up as an inflation/geopolitical hedge, so it might shrug this one off.
Don't trade the headline — trade the tone at the 2:30pm ET presser.
Drop your BTC, stocks, or gold positions in the trade-sharing widget below 👇
What's your call — hike and done, or hike and hold on tight?
$BTC
$NVDAB
#FedRateWatch
#BitcoinFalls4%
#USSenateBlocksClarityAct
August core CPI came in hot at 0.3% MoM, and odds of a 25bp hike this week are near 90%. My take: this isn't a one-off. Warsh went hawkish at Jackson Hole, three FOMC members already wanted to hike in July, and oil's climbing again. Watch the dot plot, not just the decision — that's what tells us if a full cycle is starting.
If the hike lands:
$BTC
Short-term bearish — tighter liquidity, less risk appetite. But it's mostly priced in already. The real danger is Warsh signaling more hikes ahead.
Tech stocks: Bearish, and more sensitive than crypto — growth valuations get hit hardest by higher rates.
Gold: Mixed. Normally bearish on hikes, but it's holding up as an inflation/geopolitical hedge, so it might shrug this one off.
Don't trade the headline — trade the tone at the 2:30pm ET presser.
Drop your BTC, stocks, or gold positions in the trade-sharing widget below 👇
What's your call — hike and done, or hike and hold on tight?
$BTC
$NVDAB
#FedRateWatch
#BitcoinFalls4%
#USSenateBlocksClarityAct
