9.16 Big chart/pattern: Tonight, what you really need to watch isn’t whether there’s a rate hike, but how the market moves after the hike.
Last night, the CLARITY procedural vote didn’t pass. BTC first got sold down in a round, and today the market has once again shifted all its attention to the FOMC.
The latest pricing shows that expectations for a 25-basis-point hike have already exceeded 90%.
So what Ye cares most about is the “rate hike getting delivered + the tone of the remarks.”
If it’s only 25BP, and the wording afterward stays restrained, the market may still move through a round of bad-news “hike-done” positioning—BTC gets shaken out first, then repaired.
If the dot plot keeps being raised, implying more consecutive hikes ahead, then the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields will move higher again, and the pressure on risk assets will increase noticeably.
On the chart, I’ll watch two zones first: support at 75,000–76,000, and resistance at 80,000–82,000.
If 75,000 holds, I’ll first look for a range-bound repair;
if it breaks, then I’ll look at 73,000–74,000.
After nine years, I’ve only done one thing: wait for the key levels to show up, then follow the rhythm of the Zijin cuts. $BTC #美联储加息是否已成定局
Last night, the CLARITY procedural vote didn’t pass. BTC first got sold down in a round, and today the market has once again shifted all its attention to the FOMC.
The latest pricing shows that expectations for a 25-basis-point hike have already exceeded 90%.
So what Ye cares most about is the “rate hike getting delivered + the tone of the remarks.”
If it’s only 25BP, and the wording afterward stays restrained, the market may still move through a round of bad-news “hike-done” positioning—BTC gets shaken out first, then repaired.
If the dot plot keeps being raised, implying more consecutive hikes ahead, then the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields will move higher again, and the pressure on risk assets will increase noticeably.
On the chart, I’ll watch two zones first: support at 75,000–76,000, and resistance at 80,000–82,000.
If 75,000 holds, I’ll first look for a range-bound repair;
if it breaks, then I’ll look at 73,000–74,000.
After nine years, I’ve only done one thing: wait for the key levels to show up, then follow the rhythm of the Zijin cuts. $BTC #美联储加息是否已成定局
