#美联储加息是否已成定局
This morning’s pricing:
- CME FedWatch: about 92%–93% for a 25bp hike, keeping roughly 7%–8%
- Polymarket: about 87% for a 25bp hike, keeping roughly 13%–14%
After adding, the target range is 3.75%–4.00%. The odds of a 50bp move and of a rate cut are close to zero. The market is treating this as “nearly certain,” and index futures are moving accordingly.
But “nearly certain” doesn’t mean it’s already over. In July, it’s still 9–3 and no change; the committee could choose to turn more hawkish in the statement, adjust the dot plot, and leave the hiking for later. JPMorgan has also written: not hiking would damage credibility, but the hike has already been fully priced in—the real impact is on the path rather than those 25bp.
So: trade according to a priced-in rate hike; in practice, you have to wait for the two o’clock statement(s). What’s set in stone is the expectation, not the decision
$BTC
$QQQ
This morning’s pricing:
- CME FedWatch: about 92%–93% for a 25bp hike, keeping roughly 7%–8%
- Polymarket: about 87% for a 25bp hike, keeping roughly 13%–14%
After adding, the target range is 3.75%–4.00%. The odds of a 50bp move and of a rate cut are close to zero. The market is treating this as “nearly certain,” and index futures are moving accordingly.
But “nearly certain” doesn’t mean it’s already over. In July, it’s still 9–3 and no change; the committee could choose to turn more hawkish in the statement, adjust the dot plot, and leave the hiking for later. JPMorgan has also written: not hiking would damage credibility, but the hike has already been fully priced in—the real impact is on the path rather than those 25bp.
So: trade according to a priced-in rate hike; in practice, you have to wait for the two o’clock statement(s). What’s set in stone is the expectation, not the decision
$BTC
$QQQ
