Good evening. First, let’s look at the numbers.

BTC is reported at 75,440, down about 3% from the previous day. ETH is at 2,390, with a drop of nearly 5%. The market that was trading above 78,000 just two days ago has erased most of this month’s gains in just two days.

Yesterday’s Senate vote— the result is out.

For the procedural vote on the CLARITY Act: 49 votes in favor, 50 against. And what it needs is 60 votes.

The other day I said something here: being short by a few votes has more information than whether it passed or not. Being short by 5 votes means coming back next year. Being short by 25 votes means this line is completely dead.

Now the answer is 11 votes. Stuck in that middle, most uncomfortable position—not the kind of close-but-missed regret, and not the clear-cut case of having no chance at all. It’s the sort of thing where you know there’s still hope, but that hope has to wait until some far-off year.

In the industry, some people are already saying the next realistic window might have to wait until 2030.

So why did it only fall 3%?

Because this money was already off the table long ago.

Since the beginning of the month, the market’s odds of this bill passing have never exceeded 26%. People who truly bet on it already exited last week. What was sold yesterday was the last batch that still held out hope.

It’s like the person you chased for three years finally tells you, ‘We’re just not a match.’

Uncomfortable? Yes, it’s uncomfortable—but you won’t collapse on the spot, because you already knew the answer in the seventh month. For the next couple of years, you’re just reluctant to let go of the version of yourself that’s already been spent.

Sunk costs never disappear just because the outcome is revealed. They only change—turning from expectation into a different name: experience.

Also, tonight’s match…

At 2:00 a.m. Beijing time, the FOMC will release its decision. The current range is 3.5% to 3.75%. The probability of a rate hike in futures is still high. The market consensus on how many times the Fed will cut rates this year is still zero. Add to that the Middle East’s energy prices not settling down—there’s no sign that the inflation line will loosen in the near term.

Within a day, regulators shut one door. The liquidity door still has another, and it will depend on tonight. That’s the whole logic of the current market.

But there’s one detail worth remembering.

ETH spot ETF saw net inflows of 197 million last week. In the same period, BTC-related funds had net outflows of 463 million. The money didn’t run away—it’s just switching locations.

The structure is quietly shifting, but the price hasn’t responded yet. At times like this, disagreement is often more valuable than consensus.

How to look at tomorrow? Three points.

First, before tonight’s results come out, don’t use leverage. Liquidity at midnight is thinnest—one pin can pierce through your position. This is the most unnecessary way to lose money.

Second, 75,000 is the current short-term line in the sand. If it breaks below, don’t rush to scoop. In this regulatory vacuum period, the leg of policy support at least won’t be something you can count on for the next half year. Valuation needs to be propped up by other things.

Third, the spot doesn’t need to be moved. The bill hasn’t passed. Funds on-chain are still running, and the ETF channel is still open. The stablecoin line hasn’t been affected either. What collapsed today is the narrative, not the fundamentals.

peace. No stock-picking calls. I don’t control whether prices go up or down.

But I want to say something: in a bear market, the truly grinding part is never the drop—it’s the waiting. And in the waiting process, the only things you can save are bullets and common sense.

Market conditions are: 2026-09-16. The day’s data does not constitute investment advice.

#Evening Recap #BTC #ETH #US Federal Reserve #CLARITY Act