🔥 The Fed Decision Could Be Bigger Than the Rate Hike
August core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, keeping inflation pressure alive. Markets have now pushed the probability of a 25bp Fed hike to around 90% ahead of the September 16 FOMC decision.
But here’s the real question: Is this a one-off move, or the beginning of a new hiking cycle? 👀
A 25bp hike itself may already be largely priced in. The bigger market signal could come from the Fed’s guidance on what happens next.
📉 BTC: A hawkish path could increase yields and liquidity pressure, creating short-term volatility. But if the Fed signals this is a single adjustment rather than a sustained tightening cycle, risk assets could react very differently.
💻 Tech stocks: Higher rates generally increase the discount rate applied to future earnings, potentially creating pressure on high-growth valuations.
🥇 Gold: Higher yields can be a headwind, but gold’s reaction also depends on inflation expectations, real yields and broader confidence in monetary policy. Gold has remained resilient despite rising hike expectations.
For me, the trade isn’t simply “hike = sell.” The real opportunity may come from the Fed’s forward guidance and the market’s reaction after the decision.
What are you watching—BTC, tech or gold? And are you trading the volatility or holding through the decision?
#FedRateWatch
$AKE $ON $CNPY
August core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, keeping inflation pressure alive. Markets have now pushed the probability of a 25bp Fed hike to around 90% ahead of the September 16 FOMC decision.
But here’s the real question: Is this a one-off move, or the beginning of a new hiking cycle? 👀
A 25bp hike itself may already be largely priced in. The bigger market signal could come from the Fed’s guidance on what happens next.
📉 BTC: A hawkish path could increase yields and liquidity pressure, creating short-term volatility. But if the Fed signals this is a single adjustment rather than a sustained tightening cycle, risk assets could react very differently.
💻 Tech stocks: Higher rates generally increase the discount rate applied to future earnings, potentially creating pressure on high-growth valuations.
🥇 Gold: Higher yields can be a headwind, but gold’s reaction also depends on inflation expectations, real yields and broader confidence in monetary policy. Gold has remained resilient despite rising hike expectations.
For me, the trade isn’t simply “hike = sell.” The real opportunity may come from the Fed’s forward guidance and the market’s reaction after the decision.
What are you watching—BTC, tech or gold? And are you trading the volatility or holding through the decision?
#FedRateWatch
$AKE $ON $CNPY