$INTW, on-chain U.S. stock underlyings: in the past 24 hours it surged 6.89%, yet the funding rate is pinned at zero. This structure is uncommon—prices are up, but nobody is paying the counterparty.
Optimistic expectations tied to Trump-led U.S. stocks appear to be driving the move. Risk appetite is flowing directly into on-chain via TradFi perp channels. With the funding rate at zero, the cost side for leveraged positions is extremely low; however, the position size of 98805.25 has not changed dramatically, suggesting this isn’t a short squeeze—it's new capital taking one-sided bets.
Counterpoint: if the market’s pricing of the Trump trade is merely a pulse-like speculation without real policy follow-through, then this rally is water without a source and could drop at any time.
The second-order effects are clear. If bulls keep pushing prices higher, shorts have no cost advantage with zero funding and may be forced to close. If price pulls back, those who chased longs at the top will bear the entire cost.
Invalidation condition: if the price breaks below the integer level of 20, my short-term bullish thesis fails and I’ll exit.
Action: test a long with a small position around 22.8; place a clear stop-loss at 20. The risk-reward ratio is better than 1:3—worth doing.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #INTW
Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?
Optimistic expectations tied to Trump-led U.S. stocks appear to be driving the move. Risk appetite is flowing directly into on-chain via TradFi perp channels. With the funding rate at zero, the cost side for leveraged positions is extremely low; however, the position size of 98805.25 has not changed dramatically, suggesting this isn’t a short squeeze—it's new capital taking one-sided bets.
Counterpoint: if the market’s pricing of the Trump trade is merely a pulse-like speculation without real policy follow-through, then this rally is water without a source and could drop at any time.
The second-order effects are clear. If bulls keep pushing prices higher, shorts have no cost advantage with zero funding and may be forced to close. If price pulls back, those who chased longs at the top will bear the entire cost.
Invalidation condition: if the price breaks below the integer level of 20, my short-term bullish thesis fails and I’ll exit.
Action: test a long with a small position around 22.8; place a clear stop-loss at 20. The risk-reward ratio is better than 1:3—worth doing.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #INTW
Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?