$SOXS 24 hours down 3.549%, current price is 49.73. Prices are falling, but the funding rate is negative, -0.00018013.
Shorts are paying longs, and bearish sentiment is building up. The core of the Trump trade is policy uncertainty— the market prices in risk-off sentiment in advance into these inverse ETFs. Shorts are crowded, but the price hasn’t broken down yet, which suggests bulls and bears are in a stalemate.
Single-signal view: OI is 375,000 contracts, but turnover isn’t dramatic enough. If Trump-related remarks don’t result in any concrete negative policy catalyst, this area is prone to a short squeeze. The counterpoint is that if policy risk is confirmed as the real deal, shorts will add more and push the price through.
Second-order effects: Bulls are collecting funding while holding unrealized losses. Once their patience runs out, they may withdraw first. I’m currently watching and not in a rush to open a short. If the price breaks below the integer level of 49.5 and the funding rate turns positive, I will go short with 5x leverage. My stop-loss will be at 49.9, and take-profit at 48.8. Position size will be no more than 10%.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #SOXS
Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?
Shorts are paying longs, and bearish sentiment is building up. The core of the Trump trade is policy uncertainty— the market prices in risk-off sentiment in advance into these inverse ETFs. Shorts are crowded, but the price hasn’t broken down yet, which suggests bulls and bears are in a stalemate.
Single-signal view: OI is 375,000 contracts, but turnover isn’t dramatic enough. If Trump-related remarks don’t result in any concrete negative policy catalyst, this area is prone to a short squeeze. The counterpoint is that if policy risk is confirmed as the real deal, shorts will add more and push the price through.
Second-order effects: Bulls are collecting funding while holding unrealized losses. Once their patience runs out, they may withdraw first. I’m currently watching and not in a rush to open a short. If the price breaks below the integer level of 49.5 and the funding rate turns positive, I will go short with 5x leverage. My stop-loss will be at 49.9, and take-profit at 48.8. Position size will be no more than 10%.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #SOXS
Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?