đš The Fedâs next move could be the marketâs biggest volatility trigger this week.
August CPI came in hot enough to keep the inflation debate alive: headline CPI rose 0.4% MoM, while core CPI increased 0.3%. Core inflation is still running at 2.4% YoY.
Now the market is heavily pricing a 25bp hike at the September FOMC meeting. But the bigger question isnât simply âhike or no hike.â
Itâs what comes AFTER.
If the Fed hikes once and signals patience, markets could interpret it very differently from a message pointing toward another tightening cycle.
For BTC and tech stocks, higher rates can pressure liquidity and risk appetite. But if the hike is already fully priced in, the real volatility may come from Powellâs guidance rather than the 25bp itself.
Gold is even more interesting: higher rates can create pressure through yields and the dollar, yet persistent inflation and macro uncertainty can also support demand for defensive assets.
So Iâm watching three things:
đ The rate decision
đ The Fedâs forward guidance
đ Market reaction after the statementânot before it
The trade may not be about predicting the headline.
It may be about reading the reaction.
What are you watchingâBTC, tech stocks, or gold?
#FedRateWatch $BTC
August CPI came in hot enough to keep the inflation debate alive: headline CPI rose 0.4% MoM, while core CPI increased 0.3%. Core inflation is still running at 2.4% YoY.
Now the market is heavily pricing a 25bp hike at the September FOMC meeting. But the bigger question isnât simply âhike or no hike.â
Itâs what comes AFTER.
If the Fed hikes once and signals patience, markets could interpret it very differently from a message pointing toward another tightening cycle.
For BTC and tech stocks, higher rates can pressure liquidity and risk appetite. But if the hike is already fully priced in, the real volatility may come from Powellâs guidance rather than the 25bp itself.
Gold is even more interesting: higher rates can create pressure through yields and the dollar, yet persistent inflation and macro uncertainty can also support demand for defensive assets.
So Iâm watching three things:
đ The rate decision
đ The Fedâs forward guidance
đ Market reaction after the statementânot before it
The trade may not be about predicting the headline.
It may be about reading the reaction.
What are you watchingâBTC, tech stocks, or gold?
#FedRateWatch $BTC
