🚨 U.S. 10-year Treasury yields break above 5%—oil prices are now taking the place of the Fed’s rate hikes
Risk assets are now facing two central banks: the Federal Reserve, and crude oil at $108 per barrel.
On September 15, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose above 5%, the highest level since 2007. All three major U.S. stock indexes closed down; within the S&P sectors, only Energy rose.$CL
Expensive oil squeezes profits, and high interest rates compress valuations. Companies that rely on future earnings to prop up their stock prices are getting hit from both sides.
My trading plan is clear: first, de-lever long positions; on the rebound, cut high-valuation, pre-profit tech stocks. Keep the freed-up capital in cash. I won’t add risk positions ahead of the FOMC.
Crude oil has already surged sharply. Energy stocks are just waiting for a pullback—no chasing the news higher.
As long as the 10-year stays near 5% and Brent holds above $100, I’ll treat the tech stock rebound as a window to reduce exposure.
Mistake line: if the 10-year falls below 4.8% and Brent breaks below $100—if both occur together—I will revoke the defensive stance and re-evaluate adding positions.
I can accept making less money on the rebound. I won’t rely on adding leverage to get out of trouble.
#美债 #原油 #NASDAQ
Risk assets are now facing two central banks: the Federal Reserve, and crude oil at $108 per barrel.
On September 15, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose above 5%, the highest level since 2007. All three major U.S. stock indexes closed down; within the S&P sectors, only Energy rose.$CL
Expensive oil squeezes profits, and high interest rates compress valuations. Companies that rely on future earnings to prop up their stock prices are getting hit from both sides.
My trading plan is clear: first, de-lever long positions; on the rebound, cut high-valuation, pre-profit tech stocks. Keep the freed-up capital in cash. I won’t add risk positions ahead of the FOMC.
Crude oil has already surged sharply. Energy stocks are just waiting for a pullback—no chasing the news higher.
As long as the 10-year stays near 5% and Brent holds above $100, I’ll treat the tech stock rebound as a window to reduce exposure.
Mistake line: if the 10-year falls below 4.8% and Brent breaks below $100—if both occur together—I will revoke the defensive stance and re-evaluate adding positions.
I can accept making less money on the rebound. I won’t rely on adding leverage to get out of trouble.
#美债 #原油 #NASDAQ
