$SPCX Over the past 24 hours, it has fallen 2.982%. Political uncertainty has directly mapped onto this TradFi contract that tracks the US stock market index.
While the price is dropping, the funding rate is positive at 0.00024213—longs are paying. This combination suggests that longs are hard-holding through the price pullback, with their position cost accumulating. Open interest is 2.23 million and has not fallen significantly, indicating the trapped longs haven’t exited and are still betting on a subsequent policy turn.
Political risk is being priced in. The funding-rate structure shows that the longs haven’t given up. If the $SPCX price can hold steadily near 144 and the position size doesn’t shrink, that would mean the market is digesting the bad news. If it breaks below the current support level along with a sudden drop in open interest, then that would be long liquidation/stop-loss orders coming out—accelerating the decline.
The current structure isn’t suitable for chasing longs, and don’t rush to short either. Wait for two signals: if the price breaks below 143 and open interest decreases, you can try a small short position with a set stop-loss; or if the price rallies back above 148 on volume and the funding rate flips negative, that would indicate shorts are starting to capitulate, and you can follow. Right now, it’s just a watch-and-wait zone.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #SPCX
Where do you think this assessment is most likely to be wrong?
While the price is dropping, the funding rate is positive at 0.00024213—longs are paying. This combination suggests that longs are hard-holding through the price pullback, with their position cost accumulating. Open interest is 2.23 million and has not fallen significantly, indicating the trapped longs haven’t exited and are still betting on a subsequent policy turn.
Political risk is being priced in. The funding-rate structure shows that the longs haven’t given up. If the $SPCX price can hold steadily near 144 and the position size doesn’t shrink, that would mean the market is digesting the bad news. If it breaks below the current support level along with a sudden drop in open interest, then that would be long liquidation/stop-loss orders coming out—accelerating the decline.
The current structure isn’t suitable for chasing longs, and don’t rush to short either. Wait for two signals: if the price breaks below 143 and open interest decreases, you can try a small short position with a set stop-loss; or if the price rallies back above 148 on volume and the funding rate flips negative, that would indicate shorts are starting to capitulate, and you can follow. Right now, it’s just a watch-and-wait zone.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #SPCX
Where do you think this assessment is most likely to be wrong?