Fed decision week. This is when the market takes the test.

The August core CPI increased by 0.3% MoM with probability of 25bp rate hike at close to 90%. Am I expecting the rate hike?

Yes, the market is now well-prepared for it.

But the real question is what happens next. Personally I do not consider this as a one-off move, but a starting point depending on future inflation and economic data.

If the rate hike will take place, then at first bearish sentiment should prevail on BTC and tech companies, as rate hikes can create tighter environment. Also the gold price could be under short-term pressure but inflation or uncertainty may support it in the long term.

What am I planning to do next?

I am not going to chase the announcement candle. With BTC I will observe the market reactions after Fed and important support levels and then enter. In stocks I prefer waiting for the confirmation. Gold will stay in my radar.

Trade the reaction, not the news.

#FedRateWatch

What matters most after the Fed decision?