9.16 ETH Analysis
At the hourly timeframe, ETH has repaired a falling wedge, which is a secondary rebound within the main downwave. The lower Bollinger Band continues to widen outward; the rebound is restrained by the mid-band, forming a bearish resistance pattern. The RSI has only modestly recovered, merely a bounce after oversold conditions, and it has not formed a bullish divergence. Volume shows no increased inflow of new capital to absorb selling. The MACD bearish momentum histogram is converging, meaning the downward momentum is temporarily dulled, but it is not a trend-reversal signal. Coupled with downside expectations for the regulatory bill and its linkage with BTC, market risk appetite is weak. Selling pressure is heavier in the area of the mid-band overhead. The strategy remains focused on shorting the rebound, waiting for price to touch the resistance zone and form a sluggish/hesitating K-line before placing positions, while strictly controlling position size and stop-loss.
Trading suggestion: 2430-2460 spot, target 2350-2300.
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