#美联储加息是否已成定局 Tonight’s early-morning rate-setting meeting—will the Fed really throw the table?
Brothers, don’t sleep too deeply tonight.
The market is betting on a 25bp hike with a probability of more than 85% already. August core inflation came in hot and basically blocked Waller’s exit route. This guy at Jackson Hole just went hawkish, and now he’s getting slapped in the face by the CPI data. If they don’t hike, it’s like giving themselves a slap.
How will the voting committee cast their votes? A 6–6 deadlock—Powell’s swing vote is basically a life-or-death signature. Historically, ties like that have never happened; tonight might really be a moment of history.
What matters most is how Waller handles the press conference: saying “data-dependent” out loud, but thinking “we still need another hike” in his heart. A hawkish stance is basically a sure thing—only the degree of hawkishness is up for debate. If they imply this round isn’t just one hike, the high-flying AI hardware stocks in the US market may have to kneel first.
Crypto is even worse. The clear bill hasn’t passed, and rate-hike expectations have already smashed BTC from 79k down to around 75k. The order book is packed with sell orders, and the buyers’ depth is only a fraction of the sellers’. If another hawkish shock hits tonight, the 74k support line will very likely break.
Hawkish hikes + hawkish signaling = risk assets, please drop first in respect.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #以太坊跌破2400美元 #比特币跌至7.6万美元 #美国30年期国债收益率升破5.40%
Brothers, don’t sleep too deeply tonight.
The market is betting on a 25bp hike with a probability of more than 85% already. August core inflation came in hot and basically blocked Waller’s exit route. This guy at Jackson Hole just went hawkish, and now he’s getting slapped in the face by the CPI data. If they don’t hike, it’s like giving themselves a slap.
How will the voting committee cast their votes? A 6–6 deadlock—Powell’s swing vote is basically a life-or-death signature. Historically, ties like that have never happened; tonight might really be a moment of history.
What matters most is how Waller handles the press conference: saying “data-dependent” out loud, but thinking “we still need another hike” in his heart. A hawkish stance is basically a sure thing—only the degree of hawkishness is up for debate. If they imply this round isn’t just one hike, the high-flying AI hardware stocks in the US market may have to kneel first.
Crypto is even worse. The clear bill hasn’t passed, and rate-hike expectations have already smashed BTC from 79k down to around 75k. The order book is packed with sell orders, and the buyers’ depth is only a fraction of the sellers’. If another hawkish shock hits tonight, the 74k support line will very likely break.
Hawkish hikes + hawkish signaling = risk assets, please drop first in respect.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #以太坊跌破2400美元 #比特币跌至7.6万美元 #美国30年期国债收益率升破5.40%
