Yesterday, BTC fell to 74,913 at one point due to a spike in U.S. Treasury yields and the failure of the U.S. Senate to advance the CLARITY Act through a procedural vote. It then rebounded by 76K. The target is consolidation around 75,800.
At 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on September 17, the FOMC interest rate decision will be released, followed by a press conference at 2:30. Also included are economic projections and the dot plot. As of today, the interest-rate futures market has already priced in roughly 92% odds of a 25bp rate hike. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly broke back above 5% during the day. The market is no longer trading the question of “whether there will be a rate hike,” but rather “whether there will be more hikes after the hike.” Therefore, Chair Powell’s remarks and the dot plot are crucial.
If later there is a 25bp hike, but Powell does not signal further consecutive hikes, then the current drop may have already completed the repricing of rate-hike expectations.
Conversely, if Powell continues to emphasize hawkishness to bring down inflation and the dot plot also suggests expectations for further hikes, then the market will enter a “rate-hiking cycle,” and the decline could continue.
So tonight is still relatively complex—we’ll need to wait for Powell’s guidance on the tone.
$BTC $XAU
At 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on September 17, the FOMC interest rate decision will be released, followed by a press conference at 2:30. Also included are economic projections and the dot plot. As of today, the interest-rate futures market has already priced in roughly 92% odds of a 25bp rate hike. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly broke back above 5% during the day. The market is no longer trading the question of “whether there will be a rate hike,” but rather “whether there will be more hikes after the hike.” Therefore, Chair Powell’s remarks and the dot plot are crucial.
If later there is a 25bp hike, but Powell does not signal further consecutive hikes, then the current drop may have already completed the repricing of rate-hike expectations.
Conversely, if Powell continues to emphasize hawkishness to bring down inflation and the dot plot also suggests expectations for further hikes, then the market will enter a “rate-hiking cycle,” and the decline could continue.
So tonight is still relatively complex—we’ll need to wait for Powell’s guidance on the tone.
$BTC $XAU
