$BMNR 24 hours dropped 7.29%, now at 23.39, but the funding rate is still positive at 0.0005. A typical combination of a drop in price plus a positive funding rate.
The concept of the Trump trade has recently cooled off a bit; the market’s various policy statements from him are starting to be downplayed. In this context, as a correlated asset, $BMNR is seeing a price pullback but the funding rate hasn’t flipped negative—this suggests the longs are still stubbornly holding on, not admitting defeat. The longs are paying fees to maintain their positions; if the price keeps slipping, liquidation pressure will quickly surface. The position size is 630,000—not particularly heavy, but the fact that we haven’t seen a negative funding rate indicates the shorts have not yet formed an overwhelming advantage. The longs are still hoping for a rebound.
I’m currently shorting $BMNR . Specifically: short direction, 2x leverage. Set the stop-loss at 24.3 (near the prior high), take-profit at 21.5, with position size at 10%. The logic is to bet that after the Trump narrative cools down, the crowded long positions will collapse first. If the price straight-up rallies back above 24.3, it would indicate new political upside catalysts, and my short thesis would be invalid—then I’ll cut the position immediately.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #BMNR
Where do you think this set of assumptions is most likely to be wrong?
The concept of the Trump trade has recently cooled off a bit; the market’s various policy statements from him are starting to be downplayed. In this context, as a correlated asset, $BMNR is seeing a price pullback but the funding rate hasn’t flipped negative—this suggests the longs are still stubbornly holding on, not admitting defeat. The longs are paying fees to maintain their positions; if the price keeps slipping, liquidation pressure will quickly surface. The position size is 630,000—not particularly heavy, but the fact that we haven’t seen a negative funding rate indicates the shorts have not yet formed an overwhelming advantage. The longs are still hoping for a rebound.
I’m currently shorting $BMNR . Specifically: short direction, 2x leverage. Set the stop-loss at 24.3 (near the prior high), take-profit at 21.5, with position size at 10%. The logic is to bet that after the Trump narrative cools down, the crowded long positions will collapse first. If the price straight-up rallies back above 24.3, it would indicate new political upside catalysts, and my short thesis would be invalid—then I’ll cut the position immediately.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #BMNR
Where do you think this set of assumptions is most likely to be wrong?