The square was in an uproar today—the top story was that the procedural vote on the “Clear Act” failed. The day before, the market had still been treating it as a positive development: crypto rallied across the board, with XRP up more than 5%. But as soon as the votes were cast, it was an instant slap in the face—Bitcoin fell to 75,000, and XRP dropped more than 9% in a single day. That’s a message-driven market move: it comes fast and goes just as fast, and anyone betting on the news today definitely won’t feel good.
A second layer of pressure comes from the macro picture. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.04%, a near-20-year high, and the 20-year auction yield hit 5.42%, setting a record. Even the Treasury Secretary came out to acknowledge the deficit problem, and Wall Street is stepping up bets against U.S. Treasuries. On top of that, the situation in the Middle East is pushing oil prices up more than 4%. Inflation concerns are back on the rise, and market expectations for rate hikes this week have already edged toward 90%.
This week is also a “central bank super week.” The Fed’s FOMC meeting will deliver its decision early Thursday morning, and then Powell will hold a press conference. The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are also lining up for their announcements. This week, crypto prices are basically being pulled along by macro factors.
My view is very straightforward: the bill failing means the path for U.S. regulation to land is longer than people expected—this is a mid-term negative for crypto, so don’t expect a short-term rebound to fix everything. Combined with the pressure from Treasuries and oil, defense comes first this week. Those who are currently in cash should continue waiting; those who already hold positions should reduce leverage—don’t gamble on a direction during a super week.
#比特币 #币安广场 #CLARITY #宏观
A second layer of pressure comes from the macro picture. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.04%, a near-20-year high, and the 20-year auction yield hit 5.42%, setting a record. Even the Treasury Secretary came out to acknowledge the deficit problem, and Wall Street is stepping up bets against U.S. Treasuries. On top of that, the situation in the Middle East is pushing oil prices up more than 4%. Inflation concerns are back on the rise, and market expectations for rate hikes this week have already edged toward 90%.
This week is also a “central bank super week.” The Fed’s FOMC meeting will deliver its decision early Thursday morning, and then Powell will hold a press conference. The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are also lining up for their announcements. This week, crypto prices are basically being pulled along by macro factors.
My view is very straightforward: the bill failing means the path for U.S. regulation to land is longer than people expected—this is a mid-term negative for crypto, so don’t expect a short-term rebound to fix everything. Combined with the pressure from Treasuries and oil, defense comes first this week. Those who are currently in cash should continue waiting; those who already hold positions should reduce leverage—don’t gamble on a direction during a super week.
#比特币 #币安广场 #CLARITY #宏观