$BMNR fell 7.29% over the past 24 hours; the price is at 23.39, but the funding rate is still positive at 0.0005. This structure suggests that the longs are still stubbornly holding on, paying money to the shorts.
Why is the funding rate still positive even after the drop? This is a typical Trump trade reversal trap. The market has been betting that he will post a bullish tweet about technology stocks. $BMNR , as the underlying for an on-chain US stock contract, was previously heavily positioned by those people. Now that the price has come down, these longs either believe strongly enough to hold, or they’re trapped and can only add more to average down. A positive funding rate is evidence—they’re continuously paying to maintain their positions.
As a derivatives trader, I’m waiting for a Trump tweet about tougher trade policies toward China. That would directly break through this long-position structure. With the price currently at 23.39, if another hardline China-related news item comes out, $BMNR could potentially smash through the 23 level. I’ll short it at that time, with a stop-loss at 23.8. I’ll start with 10% of the position to capture a quick move.
The condition for this thesis to fail is if Trump suddenly switches and tweets praise about Chinese technology companies.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #BMNR
Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?
Why is the funding rate still positive even after the drop? This is a typical Trump trade reversal trap. The market has been betting that he will post a bullish tweet about technology stocks. $BMNR , as the underlying for an on-chain US stock contract, was previously heavily positioned by those people. Now that the price has come down, these longs either believe strongly enough to hold, or they’re trapped and can only add more to average down. A positive funding rate is evidence—they’re continuously paying to maintain their positions.
As a derivatives trader, I’m waiting for a Trump tweet about tougher trade policies toward China. That would directly break through this long-position structure. With the price currently at 23.39, if another hardline China-related news item comes out, $BMNR could potentially smash through the 23 level. I’ll short it at that time, with a stop-loss at 23.8. I’ll start with 10% of the position to capture a quick move.
The condition for this thesis to fail is if Trump suddenly switches and tweets praise about Chinese technology companies.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #BMNR
Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?