$BMNR 24 hours dropped 7.29%, now at 23.39. This drawdown isn’t small in TradFi perps.
I’m bearish. The core logic is that longs are stubbornly absorbing negative feedback. The price is falling, but the funding rate is positive at 0.0005 annualized, which isn’t low. This suggests longs are still paying shorts; they’re hard-backing the decline while their costs accumulate. Open interest at 630k hasn’t dropped noticeably, further confirming this. The market is betting on the so-called Trump trade, waiting for some policy catalyst to save them. But based on the price action and the funding structure, this kind of expectation is, for now, only a cost.
The strongest counter-evidence is that if Trump actually posts a bullish tweet or a policy comes through, it could instantly blow up the shorts. But right now there’s no reliable source indicating that this would happen; that’s an assumption that hasn’t materialized.
Second-order impact: If longs keep holding on like this, the funding rate will continue draining them. Once they can’t hold any longer and get liquidated/closed, and there’s no fresh batch of longs to take over, the price can easily drop another step. Their closing actions will become fuel for the selloff.
My invalidation conditions: If the price rebounds and holds above 23.39, while the funding rate starts to decline—indicating the long positioning structure is improving—then I’ll admit I was wrong.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #BMNR
Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?
I’m bearish. The core logic is that longs are stubbornly absorbing negative feedback. The price is falling, but the funding rate is positive at 0.0005 annualized, which isn’t low. This suggests longs are still paying shorts; they’re hard-backing the decline while their costs accumulate. Open interest at 630k hasn’t dropped noticeably, further confirming this. The market is betting on the so-called Trump trade, waiting for some policy catalyst to save them. But based on the price action and the funding structure, this kind of expectation is, for now, only a cost.
The strongest counter-evidence is that if Trump actually posts a bullish tweet or a policy comes through, it could instantly blow up the shorts. But right now there’s no reliable source indicating that this would happen; that’s an assumption that hasn’t materialized.
Second-order impact: If longs keep holding on like this, the funding rate will continue draining them. Once they can’t hold any longer and get liquidated/closed, and there’s no fresh batch of longs to take over, the price can easily drop another step. Their closing actions will become fuel for the selloff.
My invalidation conditions: If the price rebounds and holds above 23.39, while the funding rate starts to decline—indicating the long positioning structure is improving—then I’ll admit I was wrong.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #BMNR
Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?