#美联储加息是否已成定局
The Fed will make its rate decision tonight; a rate hike is almost certain, but it hasn’t been implemented yet.
CME pricing puts a 25bp hike at about 92%–94%. A Reuters survey has 85% of economists betting on a move up to 3.75%–4.00%. August CPI is still high, and oil prices have been affected by the Middle East situation. Waller (Powell is generally described as more hawkish) is leaning hawkish, and in July there were already 3 votes in favor of a hike.
For US equities: the hike itself has mostly been priced in. The real focus is whether the dot plot will be revised upward and whether Waller signals that another hike is still coming. A decision doesn’t automatically mean a selloff; only a hawkish path would start to kill valuations again.
The statement is expected at around 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday.
The Fed will make its rate decision tonight; a rate hike is almost certain, but it hasn’t been implemented yet.
CME pricing puts a 25bp hike at about 92%–94%. A Reuters survey has 85% of economists betting on a move up to 3.75%–4.00%. August CPI is still high, and oil prices have been affected by the Middle East situation. Waller (Powell is generally described as more hawkish) is leaning hawkish, and in July there were already 3 votes in favor of a hike.
For US equities: the hike itself has mostly been priced in. The real focus is whether the dot plot will be revised upward and whether Waller signals that another hike is still coming. A decision doesn’t automatically mean a selloff; only a hawkish path would start to kill valuations again.
The statement is expected at around 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday.