Let’s talk about the fundamentals you like to hear:
Last night at 10 p.m., following Bessent's tough remarks on Iran policy, oil prices rose sharply.
But it’s clear that the pressure of the oil price increase on BTC and ETH has weakened a lot.
When oil prices surged quickly upward, BTC and ETH’s losses narrowed—they barely managed to hold their key defensive levels.
So why did this happen?
On one hand, BTC and ETH themselves are currently trying to form a base and stay steady.
More importantly, after midnight tonight at 12 a.m. and again at 2 a.m., the Fed’s September FOMC meeting decision will be released.
At present, the market expects that the rate hike in September has already exceeded 90%. Basically, everyone has mentally assumed that this rate hike is a foregone conclusion.
In other words, for this rate hike, the market has already fully priced it in ahead of time.
If the rate hike happens as scheduled by 25 basis points, that’s within expectations. On the contrary, not raising rates would be the upside surprise beyond expectations.
Of course, the key point isn’t just this single rate hike.
After the rate hike, what matters most is the subsequent stance—what kind of monetary policy path the Fed signals, and especially whether it will release signals that they’re going to start a new round of consecutive large rate hikes.
If it’s only about completing this rate hike, and the subsequent remarks continue to emphasize that everything will depend on inflation data—without any clear arrangements for ongoing consecutive hikes—then the market will interpret this round as meaning just one to two rate hikes.
And this year’s two rate hikes were already expectations that the market had priced in in advance. h
At this point, it’s a classic case of bad news having been fully priced in—so it can actually evolve into good news.
The probability of starting a large-scale tightening cycle with consecutive rate hikes is actually not that high.
Therefore, before the official results come out, funds are relatively hesitant: they don’t dare smash the market aggressively downward, and they also don’t dare to take the initiative to launch a major push upward.
BTC and ETH are just hovering and oscillating around key defense levels.
So this is an initial sign of stabilizing, but at the same time it’s still hovering right at the edge of danger.
Ultimately, the direction will depend on tonight’s decision from the U.S. Federal Reserve and the remarks that follow after Powell.
If the outcome falls within the market’s expectations, then BTC and ETH may have a chance to start a big rebound—possibly even a V-shaped reversal—riding on the “bad news fully priced in” dynamic.
For operations at this stage, I suggest you keep your core position intact. Don’t go all-in. Calm down and wait patiently for this news to land.
One more thing to say: the overall direction of BTC and ETH running in a full-blown bull market hasn’t changed. It just won’t be smooth sailing; the process will be winding.
So everyone needs to steady their mindset. Don’t let one bullish candle make you blindly optimistic and change your worldview. And don’t let one bearish candle completely否定 everything you previously judged. Maintain your strategic resolve. $BTC $ETH
