Yesterday the CLARITY Act vote gave the crypto market another reason to de-risk.
The Senate needed 60 votes to advance it, but the vote ended 49–50. BTC reacted almost immediately and the broader market followed.
Now the attention shifts to the Fed.
Today is FOMC, and honestly, I think the rate decision itself may not be the most interesting part. The market has already spent days positioning around it.
What matters to me is what comes after the announcement.
Does Warsh sound more concerned about inflation?
Does the Fed leave the door open for more restrictive policy?
Or does the market hear enough to start pricing a softer path?
That difference could matter more for BTC than the headline rate decision.
I'm watching BTC, the dollar and Treasury yields together. If yields and the dollar push higher after the announcement, risk assets could remain under pressure. If they cool off, BTC could get some relief.
Yesterday was a regulatory shock.
Today we get the macro test.
I wouldn't be surprised to see some crazy volatility around the announcement, including a move in one direction followed by a reversal.
For me, the important trade isn't predicting the first candle. It's seeing where BTC settles after the noise.
#FedRateWatch #USSenateBlocksClarityAct
The Senate needed 60 votes to advance it, but the vote ended 49–50. BTC reacted almost immediately and the broader market followed.
Now the attention shifts to the Fed.
Today is FOMC, and honestly, I think the rate decision itself may not be the most interesting part. The market has already spent days positioning around it.
What matters to me is what comes after the announcement.
Does Warsh sound more concerned about inflation?
Does the Fed leave the door open for more restrictive policy?
Or does the market hear enough to start pricing a softer path?
That difference could matter more for BTC than the headline rate decision.
I'm watching BTC, the dollar and Treasury yields together. If yields and the dollar push higher after the announcement, risk assets could remain under pressure. If they cool off, BTC could get some relief.
Yesterday was a regulatory shock.
Today we get the macro test.
I wouldn't be surprised to see some crazy volatility around the announcement, including a move in one direction followed by a reversal.
For me, the important trade isn't predicting the first candle. It's seeing where BTC settles after the noise.
#FedRateWatch #USSenateBlocksClarityAct
