FOMC September: Will a 25bp Rate Hike from the Fed Shake the Market?
Looking at the August core CPI data, which rose by 0.3% (MoM), the market now sees nearly a 90% probability that the Fed will announce a 25 basis point (25bp) rate hike at this week’s FOMC meeting. The question is: is this the start of a new (hawkish) tightening cycle, or just a temporary adjustment?
In my view, this 25bp increase is most likely a one-off move. The Fed seems to only want to make sure inflation is truly tame before they start thinking about easing liquidity in the coming quarter. Macroeconomic conditions that are beginning to slow do not support a long-term tightening cycle.
What will it mean for BTC, Tech Stocks, and Gold?
If this 25bp hike is announced, the market’s initial reaction may be slightly bearish due to momentary panic and a strengthening US Dollar. Gold and tech stocks could see a short-term correction. However, for Bitcoin (BTC), I believe this sentiment is mostly already priced in. BTC may drop to test its nearest support area before eventually bouncing back (bullish rebound).
My Next Trading Strategy:
Given this week’s volatility, I’m not rushing into leverage trading. My current strategy is to accumulate / DCA Bitcoin at lower price areas.
"Last month I had to cut losses at $MARSCOIN , so now I’m more focused on holding assets at $MARSCOIN , which I believe are more resilient in the long run."
I’ve shared my holdings $MARSCOIN
via the Trade Sharing Widget below. Let’s see how the Fed sets the direction of the market next! How’s your portfolio looking ahead of this FOMC?🤑
#FedRateWatch
Looking at the August core CPI data, which rose by 0.3% (MoM), the market now sees nearly a 90% probability that the Fed will announce a 25 basis point (25bp) rate hike at this week’s FOMC meeting. The question is: is this the start of a new (hawkish) tightening cycle, or just a temporary adjustment?
In my view, this 25bp increase is most likely a one-off move. The Fed seems to only want to make sure inflation is truly tame before they start thinking about easing liquidity in the coming quarter. Macroeconomic conditions that are beginning to slow do not support a long-term tightening cycle.
What will it mean for BTC, Tech Stocks, and Gold?
If this 25bp hike is announced, the market’s initial reaction may be slightly bearish due to momentary panic and a strengthening US Dollar. Gold and tech stocks could see a short-term correction. However, for Bitcoin (BTC), I believe this sentiment is mostly already priced in. BTC may drop to test its nearest support area before eventually bouncing back (bullish rebound).
My Next Trading Strategy:
Given this week’s volatility, I’m not rushing into leverage trading. My current strategy is to accumulate / DCA Bitcoin at lower price areas.
"Last month I had to cut losses at $MARSCOIN , so now I’m more focused on holding assets at $MARSCOIN , which I believe are more resilient in the long run."
I’ve shared my holdings $MARSCOIN
via the Trade Sharing Widget below. Let’s see how the Fed sets the direction of the market next! How’s your portfolio looking ahead of this FOMC?🤑
#FedRateWatch
