$NBIS This bearish candle isn’t that big, but the combined structure is a bit interesting. At a price of 208, in the past 24 hours it’s down 3.193%. Trading volume is 340 million, and open interest is a bit over 65,000. The key is the funding rate: 0.00006344, and it’s still positive. While the price is falling, the funding rate is positive—meaning longs are continuing to pay shorts.
This setup is a typical “longs trapped and averaging in.” Price is moving down, but the funding rate hasn’t turned negative yet. That indicates the bulls are still stubbornly holding on, and may even be adding to average down. Every day they’re being bled by the shorts. Open interest around 65,000—without comparing to the trade value, we can’t say whether it’s light or heavy—but within a downtrend, heavy open interest at high levels implies accumulated leveraged positions. Once it breaks a key level, the resulting liquidation cascade can happen very quickly. In the last similar long-holding structure, the outcome often was a sharp drop—enough to blow up the leverage before it stops.
My view is that this isn’t the bottom; it’s a continuation in a down move. While longs are paying funding, they’re also absorbing losses—these two costs together are not sustainable. Either price suddenly rallies to blow up the shorts, or longs can’t hold on and start closing positions, triggering a chain liquidation. Looking at the funding rate, shorts currently have the advantage with “easy money,” so they don’t have much incentive to close early. Therefore, the first scenario is less likely. More likely is that longs themselves can’t keep supporting.
The opposing argument is: if it chops sideways for long enough, the funding rate might gradually get ground down, or an unexpected positive catalyst could directly drive a surge. But the invalidation conditions are very clear: price must reclaim above 215 to temporarily reverse this structure where longs are being bled.
So my strategy is very clear: short.
Direction: Short
Leverage: 3x
Stop loss: 215 (breakout above the prior high resistance)
Take profit: 195 (the next whole-number level, and also a potential dense long liquidation zone)
Position: Light position, 30% of total capital
The longs are bleeding every day—that’s what hurts them the most. I’ll add to the position only if one of two things happens: (1) the funding rate suddenly spikes, indicating longs have started疯狂补仓 (madly adding)—that’s the last struggle; (2) it directly breaks below the 200 whole-number mark, triggering the first wave of stop orders. If price rebounds to above 210 but the funding rate doesn’t rise along with it, I’d also consider reducing—because that would suggest shorts are starting to retreat.
Aggressive: short at the current price, 3x leverage, hold firmly to 195.
Conservative: wait for a rebound into the 210–212 range, then open the short; set a tighter stop loss.
Avoid: if the funding rate turns negative quickly, immediately stop shorting—that may mean the short side is crowded and an upside pullback is coming.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #NBIS
Where do you think this set of judgments is most likely to be wrong?
This setup is a typical “longs trapped and averaging in.” Price is moving down, but the funding rate hasn’t turned negative yet. That indicates the bulls are still stubbornly holding on, and may even be adding to average down. Every day they’re being bled by the shorts. Open interest around 65,000—without comparing to the trade value, we can’t say whether it’s light or heavy—but within a downtrend, heavy open interest at high levels implies accumulated leveraged positions. Once it breaks a key level, the resulting liquidation cascade can happen very quickly. In the last similar long-holding structure, the outcome often was a sharp drop—enough to blow up the leverage before it stops.
My view is that this isn’t the bottom; it’s a continuation in a down move. While longs are paying funding, they’re also absorbing losses—these two costs together are not sustainable. Either price suddenly rallies to blow up the shorts, or longs can’t hold on and start closing positions, triggering a chain liquidation. Looking at the funding rate, shorts currently have the advantage with “easy money,” so they don’t have much incentive to close early. Therefore, the first scenario is less likely. More likely is that longs themselves can’t keep supporting.
The opposing argument is: if it chops sideways for long enough, the funding rate might gradually get ground down, or an unexpected positive catalyst could directly drive a surge. But the invalidation conditions are very clear: price must reclaim above 215 to temporarily reverse this structure where longs are being bled.
So my strategy is very clear: short.
Direction: Short
Leverage: 3x
Stop loss: 215 (breakout above the prior high resistance)
Take profit: 195 (the next whole-number level, and also a potential dense long liquidation zone)
Position: Light position, 30% of total capital
The longs are bleeding every day—that’s what hurts them the most. I’ll add to the position only if one of two things happens: (1) the funding rate suddenly spikes, indicating longs have started疯狂补仓 (madly adding)—that’s the last struggle; (2) it directly breaks below the 200 whole-number mark, triggering the first wave of stop orders. If price rebounds to above 210 but the funding rate doesn’t rise along with it, I’d also consider reducing—because that would suggest shorts are starting to retreat.
Aggressive: short at the current price, 3x leverage, hold firmly to 195.
Conservative: wait for a rebound into the 210–212 range, then open the short; set a tighter stop loss.
Avoid: if the funding rate turns negative quickly, immediately stop shorting—that may mean the short side is crowded and an upside pullback is coming.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #NBIS
Where do you think this set of judgments is most likely to be wrong?